Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
46 Loyola Chicago 46.3%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 7 13 - 5 +10.3      +3.5 75 +6.8 24 60.3 347 0.0 1 0.0 1
73 Drake 29.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 8 12 - 6 +7.6      +4.4 57 +3.2 91 65.6 269 0.0 1 0.0 1
96 Missouri St. 20.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +5.6      +3.1 87 +2.4 107 70.6 137 0.0 1 0.0 1
107 Northern Iowa 18.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 10 - 8 +4.6      +3.1 88 +1.5 130 70.9 131 0.0 1 0.0 1
140 Southern Illinois 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 9 - 9 +1.8      -0.4 188 +2.3 110 65.0 287 0.0 1 0.0 1
157 Bradley 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 10 +0.5      0.0 174 +0.5 162 64.8 290 0.0 1 0.0 1
176 Indiana St. 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 7 - 11 -0.3      -1.1 213 +0.8 148 66.6 248 0.0 1 0.0 1
189 Valparaiso 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 7 - 11 -1.2      -0.7 197 -0.5 191 67.0 236 0.0 1 0.0 1
198 Evansville 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -1.8      -0.3 184 -1.5 225 57.8 357 0.0 1 0.0 1
223 Illinois St. 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 6 - 12 -3.2      -2.7 256 -0.5 195 71.1 127 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 2.4 44.1 21.9 13.2 8.2 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3
Drake 3.2 26.7 21.6 15.9 12.0 8.5 5.9 4.2 2.8 1.7 0.8
Missouri St. 3.9 16.5 17.6 16.2 13.9 10.9 8.6 6.5 4.8 3.2 1.8
Northern Iowa 4.3 13.1 15.2 15.2 14.3 12.0 9.8 8.0 6.0 3.9 2.5
Southern Illinois 5.4 6.2 8.8 11.0 12.6 12.9 12.5 11.5 10.1 8.3 6.0
Bradley 6.0 4.3 6.6 8.8 10.6 12.1 12.8 12.7 12.5 10.9 8.5
Indiana St. 6.3 3.4 5.5 7.7 9.6 11.3 12.6 13.3 13.4 12.7 10.6
Valparaiso 6.6 2.3 4.5 6.3 8.5 10.4 12.3 13.5 14.5 14.3 13.4
Evansville 6.8 1.9 3.8 5.9 8.0 9.8 11.5 13.0 14.7 15.9 15.5
Illinois St. 7.4 1.2 2.4 4.0 5.9 7.7 10.2 12.4 15.5 18.7 22.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.9 4.2 5.5 7.8 9.8 11.8 13.3 13.6 12.7 9.6 4.8
Drake 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.8 5.2 7.0 8.5 10.3 11.4 11.9 11.5 10.4 7.7 4.7 1.8
Missouri St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.4 6.0 7.2 9.0 10.6 10.8 11.1 10.3 9.3 7.0 4.4 2.4 0.8
Northern Iowa 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.3 7.2 8.5 9.9 10.8 10.7 10.4 9.4 7.6 5.8 3.3 1.7 0.6
Southern Illinois 9 - 9 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.2 7.0 8.6 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.1 8.9 7.5 5.4 4.1 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2
Bradley 8 - 10 0.4 1.6 3.2 5.0 7.0 9.1 10.0 10.7 10.6 10.1 9.0 7.3 5.8 4.2 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
Indiana St. 7 - 11 0.6 2.1 4.2 6.0 8.2 9.7 10.6 10.9 10.8 9.4 8.3 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 11 1.0 2.7 5.1 7.3 9.3 10.8 11.0 10.7 10.3 9.0 7.4 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Evansville 7 - 11 1.2 3.4 5.9 8.3 10.2 11.1 10.9 10.5 9.8 8.3 6.7 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Illinois St. 6 - 12 2.2 5.3 8.2 10.5 11.9 12.0 10.9 10.1 8.3 6.7 5.1 3.4 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago 44.1% 33.8 8.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
Drake 26.7% 18.7 6.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
Missouri St. 16.5% 10.9 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Northern Iowa 13.1% 8.4 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
Southern Illinois 6.2% 3.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bradley 4.3% 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 3.4% 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 2.3% 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Evansville 1.9% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 46.3% 33.3% 13.0% 12   0.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.4 4.3 6.4 8.1 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 53.7 19.5%
Drake 29.4% 20.9% 8.5% 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.8 4.5 6.4 3.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 70.6 10.8%
Missouri St. 20.1% 14.1% 6.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.8 3.2 4.8 2.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 79.9 7.0%
Northern Iowa 18.1% 11.4% 6.7% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.5 2.0 3.1 4.3 2.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 81.9 7.5%
Southern Illinois 7.9% 6.0% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 92.1 2.0%
Bradley 5.4% 4.2% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 94.6 1.3%
Indiana St. 4.4% 3.6% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 95.6 0.8%
Valparaiso 3.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 96.7 0.6%
Evansville 2.7% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 97.3 0.4%
Illinois St. 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 98.3 0.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Loyola Chicago 46.3% 3.4% 44.7% 23.1% 10.4% 4.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4%
Drake 29.4% 2.8% 28.1% 12.4% 4.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Missouri St. 20.1% 2.3% 19.0% 7.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Northern Iowa 18.1% 2.6% 16.8% 6.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 7.9% 0.9% 7.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 5.4% 0.7% 5.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 4.4% 0.5% 4.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 3.3% 0.4% 3.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 2.7% 0.4% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 1.7% 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 65.1 30.8 3.9 0.2 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.3 0.3 70.0 26.9 2.8 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 48.1% 0.5 51.9 41.7 6.2 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 20.4% 0.2 79.6 19.5 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 8.2% 0.1 91.8 8.1 0.1
Final Four 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5 0.0
Final Game 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Champion 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6