Preseason Rankings
Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#96
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.6#137
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#107
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 1.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.8% 3.0% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.1% 21.4% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.0% 7.6% 0.9%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 12.5
.500 or above 80.7% 83.7% 49.1%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 78.0% 51.3%
Conference Champion 16.5% 17.6% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.6% 9.8%
First Four2.3% 2.5% 0.6%
First Round19.0% 20.2% 6.0%
Second Round7.3% 7.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 2.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 37 - 49 - 10
Quad 410 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 268   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-67 91%    
  Nov 13, 2021 351   Alabama St. W 85-60 99%    
  Nov 17, 2021 196   @ Sam Houston St. W 78-74 65%    
  Nov 22, 2021 271   Long Beach St. W 85-73 84%    
  Dec 01, 2021 223   @ Illinois St. W 76-70 69%    
  Dec 04, 2021 38   BYU L 72-75 41%    
  Dec 08, 2021 277   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 76-67 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 154   Oral Roberts W 83-75 75%    
  Dec 15, 2021 99   South Dakota St. W 81-78 60%    
  Dec 18, 2021 334   Central Arkansas W 88-68 95%    
  Dec 22, 2021 49   @ St. Mary's L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 02, 2022 73   Drake W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 05, 2022 157   @ Bradley W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 08, 2022 107   Northern Iowa W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 12, 2022 140   Southern Illinois W 73-66 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 189   @ Valparaiso W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 19, 2022 223   Illinois St. W 79-67 82%    
  Jan 22, 2022 46   @ Loyola Chicago L 62-70 27%    
  Jan 25, 2022 176   @ Indiana St. W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 198   Evansville W 72-62 79%    
  Feb 02, 2022 140   @ Southern Illinois W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 06, 2022 46   Loyola Chicago L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 09, 2022 73   @ Drake L 69-74 35%    
  Feb 12, 2022 189   Valparaiso W 77-67 78%    
  Feb 15, 2022 176   Indiana St. W 75-66 76%    
  Feb 20, 2022 107   @ Northern Iowa L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 23, 2022 157   Bradley W 74-66 73%    
  Feb 26, 2022 198   @ Evansville W 69-65 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 4.5 3.9 2.4 0.8 16.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.4 5.2 2.4 0.5 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 4.6 5.8 3.2 0.9 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.0 4.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.4 6.0 7.2 9.0 10.6 10.8 11.1 10.3 9.3 7.0 4.4 2.4 0.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.1
16-2 88.9% 3.9    3.2 0.7 0.0
15-3 65.0% 4.5    2.8 1.6 0.2
14-4 34.0% 3.2    1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 13.4% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 10.9 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 97.0% 66.1% 30.9% 4.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.2%
17-1 2.4% 91.1% 53.9% 37.1% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 80.6%
16-2 4.4% 77.5% 45.3% 32.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 58.8%
15-3 7.0% 57.6% 34.9% 22.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.0 34.9%
14-4 9.3% 37.4% 25.3% 12.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.8 16.2%
13-5 10.3% 22.9% 17.9% 5.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.9 6.1%
12-6 11.1% 13.8% 12.4% 1.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 9.5 1.6%
11-7 10.8% 8.9% 8.5% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.9 0.3%
10-8 10.6% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.9 0.0%
9-9 9.0% 3.9% 3.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.6
8-10 7.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0
7-11 6.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
6-12 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.4
5-13 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.1% 14.1% 6.0% 10.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.8 3.2 4.8 2.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 79.9 7.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.4 23.2 31.2 29.2 14.3 1.1 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 90.8% 3.6 5.0 14.2 16.3 34.0 17.0 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 79.4% 3.3 17.6 23.5 38.2