Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
81 Belmont 48.3%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 15 - 3 +6.8      +4.7 53 +2.1 112 74.9 62 0.0 1 0.0 1
125 Murray St. 26.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 8 13 - 5 +3.0      +1.6 131 +1.4 132 65.0 288 0.0 1 0.0 1
158 Morehead St. 15.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +0.5      -0.3 183 +0.8 150 63.7 309 0.0 1 0.0 1
268 Southeast Missouri St. 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -5.9      -2.7 255 -3.2 273 69.6 160 0.0 1 0.0 1
285 Austin Peay 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -6.7      -2.3 249 -4.4 306 66.6 249 0.0 1 0.0 1
289 Tennessee St. 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -7.0      -3.7 285 -3.3 276 74.9 61 0.0 1 0.0 1
301 Tennessee Tech 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7.6      -3.4 276 -4.2 300 71.0 128 0.0 1 0.0 1
328 SIU Edwardsville 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -10.3      -5.9 333 -4.4 305 69.0 185 0.0 1 0.0 1
330 Eastern Illinois 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -10.9      -5.2 323 -5.8 329 70.9 132 0.0 1 0.0 1
349 Tennessee Martin 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 24 4 - 14 -15.8      -6.2 338 -9.5 352 67.3 228 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Belmont 1.8 58.1 23.0 10.6 4.6 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Murray St. 2.5 30.5 29.5 18.7 9.9 5.6 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1
Morehead St. 3.2 17.8 23.5 23.1 14.5 9.0 5.5 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.3
Southeast Missouri St. 5.3 3.2 7.8 12.4 16.3 15.6 13.9 11.8 9.3 6.4 3.2
Austin Peay 5.6 2.6 6.2 10.6 14.8 15.4 14.6 12.8 10.8 8.0 4.3
Tennessee St. 5.7 2.2 5.7 9.8 13.9 15.2 14.9 13.8 11.3 8.6 4.7
Tennessee Tech 5.9 1.8 4.9 8.8 13.0 14.8 14.8 14.1 12.7 9.8 5.3
SIU Edwardsville 6.9 0.7 2.2 4.8 7.9 10.9 13.5 15.6 16.5 16.3 11.7
Eastern Illinois 7.1 0.5 1.8 4.1 6.7 9.8 13.1 14.9 17.3 17.9 13.8
Tennessee Martin 8.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.3 9.3 14.7 22.9 39.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Belmont 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.9 8.5 12.4 15.9 18.8 17.9 11.8
Murray St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.8 8.0 10.3 13.1 14.2 14.7 12.6 8.6 3.4
Morehead St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.9 3.0 4.9 6.6 8.7 10.7 12.3 13.2 12.7 10.7 7.5 4.1 1.4
Southeast Missouri St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.7 6.4 8.6 10.2 11.1 11.5 10.9 9.8 8.0 5.9 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Austin Peay 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.8 5.6 7.7 9.5 10.9 11.1 11.3 10.2 9.0 6.8 5.1 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
Tennessee St. 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.9 6.3 8.2 10.2 10.9 11.6 11.3 10.0 8.2 6.3 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Tech 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.9 4.7 6.9 8.8 10.5 11.4 11.6 10.8 9.5 7.7 5.5 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 6 - 12 1.0 3.1 6.0 8.6 10.7 11.9 12.3 11.2 10.1 8.1 6.3 4.4 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 6 - 12 1.4 4.0 7.0 9.5 11.8 12.4 12.0 11.0 9.6 7.2 5.4 3.6 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin 4 - 14 7.2 13.0 15.8 15.3 13.4 11.0 8.3 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 58.1% 46.1 10.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 30.5% 21.1 8.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 17.8% 11.3 5.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 2.6% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 2.2% 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 1.8% 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 0.7% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 48.3% 46.5% 1.8% 13   0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.6 3.5 9.5 12.2 9.1 5.0 1.6 51.7 3.4%
Murray St. 26.0% 25.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 3.6 6.3 6.7 4.8 2.2 74.0 0.7%
Morehead St. 15.9% 15.7% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 3.3 3.9 3.9 2.5 84.1 0.3%
Southeast Missouri St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 96.5 0.0%
Austin Peay 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 97.3 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 97.5 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 97.9 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 48.3% 1.5% 47.7% 13.3% 5.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Murray St. 26.0% 1.0% 25.6% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 15.9% 1.1% 15.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 3.5% 0.8% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 2.7% 0.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 2.5% 0.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 2.1% 0.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
1st Round 97.4% 1.0 2.6 95.4 1.9 0.0
2nd Round 20.1% 0.2 79.9 19.9 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0 0.0
Elite Eight 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0 0.0
Final Four 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1