Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
121 Georgia St. 23.8%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 12 - 6 +3.1      +3.2 85 -0.1 175 73.6 79 0.0 1 0.0 1
171 Louisiana 12.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 10 - 8 0.0      +1.0 148 -0.9 202 75.3 56 0.0 1 0.0 1
174 Texas St. 12.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 11 - 7 -0.1      -1.9 240 +1.8 120 59.0 354 0.0 1 0.0 1
182 Appalachian St. 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -0.7      -1.5 231 +0.8 149 62.5 328 0.0 1 0.0 1
190 Coastal Carolina 9.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 10 - 8 -1.2      +0.2 166 -1.4 224 73.9 76 0.0 1 0.0 1
194 Arkansas St. 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 9 - 9 -1.6      +0.3 163 -1.9 237 68.4 200 0.0 1 0.0 1
214 South Alabama 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 9 - 9 -2.7      -0.4 187 -2.3 247 66.2 260 0.0 1 0.0 1
224 Texas Arlington 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 9 -3.4      -3.0 266 -0.4 185 71.5 116 0.0 1 0.0 1
243 Troy 3.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -4.6      -3.5 278 -1.1 213 69.5 165 0.0 1 0.0 1
245 Georgia Southern 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -4.6      -4.2 299 -0.4 188 66.5 251 0.0 1 0.0 1
269 Louisiana Monroe 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -5.9      -4.1 298 -1.8 235 66.9 243 0.0 1 0.0 1
277 Arkansas Little Rock 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -6.2      -4.0 291 -2.2 244 67.3 229 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Georgia St. 3.5 31.2 17.5 12.6 9.6 7.4 6.2 4.7 3.6 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.7
Louisiana 4.9 15.2 13.3 11.8 10.9 9.7 8.6 7.7 6.5 5.5 4.6 3.7 2.5
Texas St. 4.8 16.0 14.3 12.1 10.9 9.2 8.4 7.3 6.3 5.2 4.5 3.4 2.5
Appalachian St. 5.3 12.9 11.7 11.4 10.4 9.7 8.6 8.3 7.4 6.5 5.6 4.5 3.0
Coastal Carolina 5.5 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.1 9.8 9.2 8.2 7.7 6.7 6.4 5.0 3.7
Arkansas St. 5.7 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.1 7.5 6.4 5.5 4.2
South Alabama 6.4 7.1 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.0 8.9 8.3 7.8 5.7
Texas Arlington 6.6 6.3 7.9 8.3 8.9 8.8 9.1 9.1 9.2 8.8 8.7 8.0 6.9
Troy 7.4 3.8 5.2 6.2 7.0 7.5 8.3 9.2 9.8 10.5 10.9 11.0 10.5
Georgia Southern 7.4 4.2 5.0 6.2 7.0 7.8 8.5 9.0 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.0 10.5
Louisiana Monroe 8.0 2.7 3.8 4.6 6.0 6.6 7.7 8.6 9.8 10.7 11.9 13.2 14.2
Arkansas Little Rock 8.1 2.5 3.6 4.5 5.5 6.2 7.5 8.3 9.6 10.7 12.2 13.9 15.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Georgia St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.7 5.0 6.8 8.3 9.8 10.8 11.5 11.4 10.8 8.2 5.4 2.4
Louisiana 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.8 5.4 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.6 10.7 10.3 9.2 7.7 5.8 3.8 2.0 0.6
Texas St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.5 5.1 6.6 8.0 9.4 10.2 10.4 10.4 9.6 8.1 6.2 4.3 2.4 0.7
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.6 6.2 7.8 9.0 9.8 10.3 10.5 9.6 8.5 6.7 4.9 3.3 1.6 0.5
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.2 6.7 8.1 9.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.3 7.9 6.3 4.4 2.7 1.3 0.5
Arkansas St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.4 7.2 8.5 9.6 10.2 10.2 9.8 8.7 7.5 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.2 0.4
South Alabama 9 - 9 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.6 7.1 8.6 9.7 10.2 10.4 9.9 8.8 7.4 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.1 5.8 7.5 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.1 9.5 8.6 7.2 5.8 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2
Troy 8 - 10 0.7 2.1 4.2 6.2 7.9 9.4 10.1 10.8 10.3 9.3 8.3 6.8 5.3 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 0.7 2.2 4.1 6.2 7.8 9.4 10.4 10.4 10.1 9.4 8.2 7.0 5.2 3.8 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 7 - 11 1.1 3.1 5.5 7.9 9.3 10.3 11.0 10.7 9.8 8.4 7.0 5.8 4.0 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 7 - 11 1.4 3.5 5.9 8.0 10.0 10.5 11.1 10.4 9.6 8.3 6.7 5.0 3.8 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Georgia St. 31.2% 22.4 6.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 15.2% 10.0 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 16.0% 10.4 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 12.9% 8.3 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 11.4% 7.1 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 10.4% 6.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 7.1% 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Arlington 6.3% 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 3.8% 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 4.2% 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 2.7% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 2.5% 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Georgia St. 23.8% 22.6% 1.2% 14   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.5 4.0 5.8 5.1 3.4 1.3 76.2 1.6%
Louisiana 12.2% 11.9% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.9 3.1 2.6 1.3 87.8 0.3%
Texas St. 12.6% 12.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 3.3 3.2 1.8 87.4 0.2%
Appalachian St. 10.8% 10.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.1 1.1 89.2 0.4%
Coastal Carolina 9.9% 9.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.5 2.4 1.4 90.1 0.3%
Arkansas St. 8.6% 8.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 2.5 1.8 91.4 0.1%
South Alabama 6.5% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.2 93.5 0.1%
Texas Arlington 5.5% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 94.5 0.1%
Troy 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 96.1 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 96.3 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 97.3 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 97.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Georgia St. 23.8% 1.2% 23.3% 5.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 12.2% 0.7% 11.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 12.6% 0.9% 12.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 10.8% 0.7% 10.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 9.9% 0.8% 9.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 8.6% 0.8% 8.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 6.5% 0.6% 6.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 5.5% 0.8% 5.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 3.9% 0.6% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.7% 0.5% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.7% 0.5% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 2.4% 0.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
1st Round 97.0% 1.0 3.1 95.1 1.8 0.0
2nd Round 13.9% 0.1 86.1 13.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0