Preseason Rankings
Western Athletic
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
102 New Mexico St. 32.6%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 13 - 5 +5.1      +2.8 96 +2.3 108 61.5 340 0.0 1 0.0 2
142 Grand Canyon 16.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.8      +1.2 139 +0.6 156 63.3 316 0.0 1 0.0 2
153 Stephen F. Austin 13.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 7 +0.8      +0.5 160 +0.3 165 71.4 123 0.0 1 0.0 1
167 Abilene Christian 11.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 11 - 7 +0.1      -2.1 246 +2.3 109 71.7 109 0.0 1 0.0 2
179 Seattle 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 -0.5      +0.1 170 -0.6 196 71.5 118 0.0 1 0.0 2
185 Tarleton St. 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 7 -0.9      -1.2 215 +0.2 167 61.8 334 0.0 1 0.0 2
196 Sam Houston St. 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 10 - 8 -1.7      -0.7 198 -1.0 205 75.5 54 0.0 1 0.0 2
209 Utah Valley 6.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -2.2      -1.1 214 -1.1 209 73.3 86 0.0 1 0.0 2
215 California Baptist 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -2.7      +1.1 141 -3.8 293 73.7 77 0.0 1 0.0 2
303 Dixie St. 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 18 6 - 12 -7.8      -3.7 288 -4.1 299 79.6 16 0.0 1 0.0 2
308 Lamar 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -8.3      -4.8 315 -3.5 285 69.3 180 0.0 1 0.0 2
310 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8.4      -5.7 329 -2.7 257 73.4 82 0.0 1 0.0 2
357 Chicago St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 28 1 - 17 -21.9      -11.1 355 -10.8 355 72.9 92 0.0 1 0.0 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
New Mexico St. 3.0 36.8 18.1 12.9 9.5 7.1 5.3 3.9 2.7 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Grand Canyon 4.3 19.0 15.3 13.3 11.5 9.8 8.4 7.1 5.6 4.1 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 4.6 15.2 13.8 12.6 11.8 10.7 9.6 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 4.6 15.2 13.8 12.6 11.8 10.7 9.6 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.1
Abilene Christian 5.0 11.9 12.9 12.2 11.5 10.2 9.8 8.7 7.6 6.1 4.4 3.1 1.6 0.1
Seattle 5.1 11.1 11.9 11.9 11.4 11.0 10.1 9.2 8.0 6.4 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.1
Tarleton St. 5.2 10.5 12.0 11.8 11.5 10.9 10.0 9.1 7.9 6.6 5.0 3.1 1.6 0.2
Sam Houston St. 6.1 7.4 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.0 8.9 7.5 5.6 3.2 0.4
Utah Valley 6.5 5.8 6.9 7.6 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 9.1 6.7 3.8 0.5
California Baptist 6.1 6.1 8.0 9.1 9.7 10.8 10.7 10.8 9.9 9.2 7.4 5.1 2.7 0.4
Dixie St. 9.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.7 5.1 6.8 9.0 11.9 16.2 19.2 17.5 3.5
Lamar 9.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.8 5.2 6.7 9.0 11.5 15.6 18.4 19.3 3.4
UT Rio Grande Valley 9.4 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.6 6.3 8.5 11.7 15.9 19.1 20.1 3.3
Chicago St. 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 4.5 16.2 76.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
New Mexico St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.8 4.1 5.9 8.1 10.3 12.1 13.6 13.6 12.4 9.2 4.5
Grand Canyon 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.7 4.3 5.5 7.7 9.5 11.0 11.7 11.9 11.2 9.5 6.8 3.9 1.4
Stephen F. Austin 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.9 8.6 10.5 11.8 11.9 11.6 10.2 7.8 5.3 2.9 0.9
Stephen F. Austin 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.9 8.6 10.5 11.8 11.9 11.6 10.2 7.8 5.3 2.9 0.9
Abilene Christian 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.0 5.9 7.6 9.3 10.7 11.3 11.3 11.0 9.0 7.0 4.4 2.1 0.7
Seattle 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.3 6.2 8.1 9.9 11.1 11.8 11.3 10.4 9.1 6.4 3.8 1.8 0.6
Tarleton St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.0 10.1 10.9 11.6 11.4 10.5 8.4 6.4 3.8 1.9 0.6
Sam Houston St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.0 10.8 11.0 10.5 9.5 7.8 5.9 4.2 2.5 1.0 0.3
Utah Valley 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.1 8.0 9.6 10.6 11.2 10.7 10.0 8.3 6.7 4.8 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2
California Baptist 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.7 6.7 8.7 10.3 11.3 11.7 11.1 9.7 8.1 5.7 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.2
Dixie St. 6 - 12 1.0 3.7 7.0 10.3 12.1 12.4 12.3 10.9 9.0 7.1 5.3 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Lamar 6 - 12 0.8 3.7 7.6 10.4 12.4 12.3 11.8 10.6 9.0 7.0 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 6 - 12 0.8 3.9 7.8 10.8 12.3 13.1 12.1 10.5 8.5 6.5 4.9 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 1 - 17 42.9 28.3 15.2 7.2 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
New Mexico St. 36.8% 26.4 8.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 19.0% 12.0 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 15.2% 9.1 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 15.2% 9.1 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 11.9% 7.0 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seattle 11.1% 6.4 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 10.5% 5.9 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 7.4% 4.2 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah Valley 5.8% 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
California Baptist 6.1% 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Dixie St. 0.8% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lamar 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
New Mexico St. 32.6% 30.9% 1.6% 13   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.2 6.4 8.2 6.3 3.7 1.2 67.4 2.4%
Grand Canyon 16.6% 16.1% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.2 3.9 4.0 3.1 1.5 83.4 0.6%
Stephen F. Austin 13.6% 13.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.4 2.8 1.2 86.4 0.4%
Stephen F. Austin 13.6% 13.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.4 2.8 1.2 86.4 0.4%
Abilene Christian 11.9% 11.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.6 3.2 2.7 1.3 88.1 0.3%
Seattle 10.8% 10.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.9 2.9 1.9 89.2 0.1%
Tarleton St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 7.5% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.0 92.5 0.2%
Utah Valley 6.8% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.0 93.2 0.2%
California Baptist 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Lamar 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.1 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
New Mexico St. 32.6% 1.2% 32.0% 8.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 16.6% 0.8% 16.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 13.6% 0.6% 13.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 13.6% 0.6% 13.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 11.9% 0.6% 11.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 10.8% 0.8% 10.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 7.5% 0.5% 7.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 6.8% 0.5% 6.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dixie St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.9 3.1 0.0
1st Round 98.3% 1.0 1.7 96.0 2.3 0.0
2nd Round 17.8% 0.2 82.2 17.6 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 5.6% 0.1 94.4 5.5 0.0
Elite Eight 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0