IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.2	#209
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.3	#86
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.1	#214

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#209

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.8%	15.5%	5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	1.0%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.9	13.1	14.2

.500 or above	44.1%	77.4%	39.4%
.500 or above in Conference	57.6%	80.5%	54.3%
Conference Champion	5.8%	14.4%	4.5%
Last Place in Conference	1.1%	0.2%	1.2%

First Four	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%
First Round	6.6%	15.0%	5.4%
Second Round	0.8%	2.6%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.8%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 3	13 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	76	@ Boise St.	L	69-81	12%
Nov 15, 2021	147	@ Pepperdine	L	75-82	28%
Nov 17, 2021	271	@ Long Beach St.	W	80-79	53%
Nov 22, 2021	341	Idaho	W	78-67	82%
Nov 27, 2021	344	Denver	W	85-71	88%
Dec 01, 2021	38	BYU	L	70-80	19%
Dec 08, 2021	122	@ Southern Utah	L	73-81	25%
Dec 11, 2021	156	@ Wyoming	L	74-80	32%
Dec 21, 2021	95	@ Washington	L	71-82	19%
Dec 30, 2021	167	Abilene Christian	W	74-73	52%
Jan 01, 2022	185	Tarleton St.	W	70-68	55%
Jan 08, 2022	303	Dixie St.	W	84-75	76%
Jan 12, 2022	179	@ Seattle	L	73-78	35%
Jan 15, 2022	215	@ California Baptist	L	78-80	42%
Jan 20, 2022	310	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	79-70	77%
Jan 22, 2022	308	Lamar	W	78-69	76%
Jan 27, 2022	357	@ Chicago St.	W	84-67	91%
Feb 03, 2022	153	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	72-78	31%
Feb 05, 2022	196	@ Sam Houston St.	L	76-79	39%
Feb 10, 2022	142	Grand Canyon	L	70-71	48%
Feb 12, 2022	102	New Mexico St.	L	68-72	37%
Feb 17, 2022	185	@ Tarleton St.	L	67-71	37%
Feb 19, 2022	303	@ Dixie St.	W	81-78	58%
Feb 24, 2022	179	Seattle	W	76-75	54%
Feb 26, 2022	215	California Baptist	W	81-77	61%
Mar 03, 2022	142	@ Grand Canyon	L	67-74	29%
Mar 05, 2022	102	@ New Mexico St.	L	65-75	21%
Projected Record						13 - 14	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.2	1.8	1.5	0.7	0.2		5.8	1st
2nd												0.1	0.6	2.1	2.6	1.2	0.3	0.0			6.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	2.6	3.1	1.0	0.1					7.6	3rd
4th										0.1	0.6	3.1	3.5	1.1	0.1						8.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.1	4.1	1.4	0.1							9.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	2.9	4.6	1.8	0.1								10.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.5	2.8	4.8	2.0	0.2									10.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.0	0.6	2.8	4.5	2.4	0.3	0.0									10.6	8th
9th					0.1	0.8	2.9	4.4	2.4	0.3											10.9	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.9	2.6	3.4	1.7	0.3												9.1	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.9	2.1	2.2	1.1	0.2	0.0												6.7	11th
12th		0.2	0.8	1.3	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0													3.8	12th
13th	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.5	13th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.4	4.1	6.1	8.0	9.6	10.6	11.2	10.7	10.0	8.3	6.7	4.8	3.1	1.8	0.7	0.2			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	99.4%	0.7		0.7	0.0
16-2	85.8%	1.5		1.1	0.4	0.0
15-3	57.5%	1.8		0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0
14-4	24.1%	1.2		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.8%	5.8		3.2	1.8	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		71.8%	56.4%	15.3%	9.2				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		35.2%
17-1	0.7%		57.4%	49.7%	7.6%	11.7					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.3		15.2%
16-2	1.8%		45.1%	43.1%	2.0%	12.8										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0		1.0		3.5%
15-3	3.1%		33.9%	33.4%	0.5%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	2.1		0.8%
14-4	4.8%		25.0%	24.8%	0.1%	13.9												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	3.6		0.2%
13-5	6.7%		16.0%	16.0%		14.4													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	5.6
12-6	8.3%		9.4%	9.4%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	7.5
11-7	10.0%		6.3%	6.3%		15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	9.4
10-8	10.7%		3.6%	3.6%		15.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	10.3
9-9	11.2%		1.6%	1.6%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.1	11.0
8-10	10.6%		0.6%	0.6%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	10.5
7-11	9.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.6
6-12	8.0%																							8.0
5-13	6.1%																							6.1
4-14	4.1%																							4.1
3-15	2.4%																							2.4
2-16	1.2%																							1.2
1-17	0.4%																							0.4
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		6.8%	6.6%	0.1%	13.9				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	1.7	1.7	1.0	93.2		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.6			22.2	25.9			25.9	25.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	77.8%	8.7								25.9	51.9
Lose Out	0.0%