IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Florida A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.9	#304
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.3	#182
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.0	#336

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.9	#239

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.0%	22.8%	9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	15.4	15.8

.500 or above	34.9%	74.2%	32.5%
.500 or above in Conference	77.7%	94.8%	76.7%
Conference Champion	13.5%	32.8%	12.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.0%	0.0%	1.1%

First Four	6.9%	9.6%	6.7%
First Round	6.5%	18.2%	5.8%
Second Round	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 5.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 10
Quad 4	12 - 7	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2021	89	@ Kansas St.	L	57-74	6%
Nov 21, 2021	85	@ Miami (FL)	L	61-79	6%
Nov 24, 2021	163	@ UTEP	L	62-73	17%
Nov 26, 2021	148	@ UC Riverside	L	61-73	15%
Dec 07, 2021	222	Florida Gulf Coast	L	72-74	44%
Dec 12, 2021	128	@ Akron	L	63-77	13%
Dec 14, 2021	90	@ Cincinnati	L	63-80	9%
Dec 17, 2021	124	@ Santa Clara	L	65-79	13%
Dec 19, 2021	97	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	60-76	9%
Dec 21, 2021	61	@ Arizona St.	L	66-86	6%
Dec 29, 2021	8	@ Illinois	L	59-86	1%
Jan 03, 2022	350	@ Bethune-Cookman	W	72-66	67%
Jan 08, 2022	317	Southern	W	73-69	62%
Jan 10, 2022	312	Grambling St.	W	72-68	61%
Jan 15, 2022	355	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	71-62	77%
Jan 17, 2022	358	@ Mississippi Valley	W	81-67	86%
Jan 22, 2022	347	Alcorn St.	W	76-66	78%
Jan 24, 2022	262	Jackson St.	W	67-66	52%
Jan 29, 2022	340	@ Alabama A&M	W	66-64	55%
Jan 31, 2022	351	@ Alabama St.	W	72-66	67%
Feb 05, 2022	211	Texas Southern	L	73-75	42%
Feb 07, 2022	232	Prairie View	L	68-69	47%
Feb 12, 2022	262	@ Jackson St.	L	64-69	33%
Feb 14, 2022	347	@ Alcorn St.	W	73-69	61%
Feb 19, 2022	351	Alabama St.	W	75-63	81%
Feb 21, 2022	340	Alabama A&M	W	69-61	73%
Feb 26, 2022	312	@ Grambling St.	L	69-71	43%
Feb 28, 2022	317	@ Southern	L	70-72	43%
Mar 05, 2022	350	Bethune-Cookman	W	75-63	82%
Projected Record						12 - 17	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	1.8	3.6	4.0	2.7	0.9		13.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.9	3.4	5.2	3.7	1.1	0.1			14.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	1.2	4.4	5.4	2.3	0.3	0.0				13.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	1.4	4.6	4.7	1.6	0.1						12.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.5	4.4	4.2	1.1	0.0							11.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.5	4.0	3.4	0.9	0.0								10.0	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.4	3.2	2.7	0.6	0.0									8.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.2	2.6	1.9	0.5	0.0										6.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.0	1.9	1.4	0.3	0.0											4.8	9th
10th			0.0	0.3	0.8	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.0												3.1	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.1														1.5	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.5	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.6	2.6	4.0	5.6	7.1	8.9	9.9	11.0	11.3	10.8	9.4	7.6	5.1	2.8	0.9			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.9		0.9
17-1	97.5%	2.7		2.4	0.4
16-2	78.4%	4.0		2.7	1.2	0.1
15-3	47.2%	3.6		1.7	1.5	0.4	0.0
14-4	19.3%	1.8		0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	3.3%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.5%	13.5		8.2	4.0	1.1	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.9%		53.2%	53.2%		14.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4
17-1	2.8%		41.5%	41.5%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.6
16-2	5.1%		32.6%	32.6%		15.7														0.0	0.1	0.3	1.3	3.4
15-3	7.6%		24.2%	24.2%		15.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	1.6	5.7
14-4	9.4%		16.9%	16.9%		16.0															0.0	0.1	1.5	7.8
13-5	10.8%		11.4%	11.4%		16.0																0.0	1.2	9.6
12-6	11.3%		7.4%	7.4%		16.0																0.0	0.8	10.4
11-7	11.0%		5.1%	5.1%		16.0																	0.6	10.4
10-8	9.9%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																	0.3	9.7
9-9	8.9%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																	0.2	8.7
8-10	7.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	7.0
7-11	5.6%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	5.6
6-12	4.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.0
5-13	2.6%																							2.6
4-14	1.6%																							1.6
3-15	0.8%																							0.8
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	15.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	8.5	90.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%