Preseason Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#31
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#192
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.9% 3.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.7% 8.8% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 19.6% 19.8% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 30.3% 30.5% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.6% 59.0% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.6% 54.0% 12.4%
Average Seed 6.3 6.3 9.0
.500 or above 82.8% 83.3% 38.6%
.500 or above in Conference 71.8% 72.2% 33.9%
Conference Champion 13.7% 13.8% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 3.1% 18.0%
First Four3.9% 3.9% 2.1%
First Round56.7% 57.1% 12.5%
Second Round37.2% 37.5% 7.1%
Sweet Sixteen18.7% 18.8% 2.9%
Elite Eight9.0% 9.1% 1.1%
Final Four4.3% 4.3% 0.9%
Championship Game2.0% 2.0% 0.4%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.2%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 35 - 114 - 11
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 324   Northern Arizona W 80-55 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-60 99%    
  Nov 16, 2021 130   North Dakota St. W 75-62 87%    
  Nov 19, 2021 54   Wichita St. W 71-68 60%    
  Nov 27, 2021 287   Sacramento St. W 79-57 97%    
  Dec 02, 2021 95   Washington W 80-70 79%    
  Dec 05, 2021 70   @ Oregon St. W 70-69 53%    
  Dec 08, 2021 156   Wyoming W 82-67 89%    
  Dec 11, 2021 8   @ Illinois L 71-78 28%    
  Dec 15, 2021 201   Northern Colorado W 81-64 92%    
  Dec 18, 2021 215   California Baptist W 86-68 92%    
  Dec 22, 2021 23   @ Tennessee L 68-72 37%    
  Dec 30, 2021 3   @ UCLA L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 02, 2022 20   @ USC L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 13, 2022 47   Colorado W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 15, 2022 88   Utah W 76-67 77%    
  Jan 20, 2022 71   @ Stanford W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 23, 2022 113   @ California W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 61   Arizona St. W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 03, 2022 3   UCLA L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 20   USC W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 10, 2022 69   @ Washington St. W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 95   @ Washington W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 17, 2022 70   Oregon St. W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 19   Oregon W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 88   @ Utah W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 47   @ Colorado L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 03, 2022 71   Stanford W 74-67 71%    
  Mar 05, 2022 113   California W 72-61 81%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 3.5 2.9 1.6 0.5 13.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 4.3 3.2 1.3 0.3 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 4.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.3 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.7 4.9 6.3 7.5 8.6 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.2 8.0 6.7 4.8 3.2 1.6 0.5 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
18-2 91.1% 2.9    2.4 0.5 0.0
17-3 72.8% 3.5    2.4 1.0 0.1
16-4 45.8% 3.1    1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.6% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 9.0 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 62.4% 37.6% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.6% 100.0% 49.9% 50.1% 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.2% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 2.0 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.8% 100.0% 33.3% 66.6% 2.8 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 6.7% 99.7% 25.3% 74.5% 3.8 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 8.0% 99.3% 18.8% 80.4% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
14-6 9.2% 95.9% 13.3% 82.6% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.3%
13-7 9.8% 88.9% 9.3% 79.6% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 87.8%
12-8 9.9% 74.9% 6.7% 68.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.5 73.2%
11-9 9.5% 53.3% 3.4% 50.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 4.4 51.7%
10-10 8.6% 31.5% 2.2% 29.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.9 30.0%
9-11 7.5% 10.6% 1.1% 9.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.7 9.6%
8-12 6.3% 3.0% 0.7% 2.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 2.2%
7-13 4.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.1%
6-14 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 58.6% 10.7% 47.9% 6.3 3.9 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.4 53.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 79.9 20.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 75.7 24.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0