Preseason Rankings
Arkansas
Southeastern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#17
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.6#20
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#20
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.5% 0.2%
#1 Seed 6.4% 6.8% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 13.6% 14.4% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 28.0% 29.5% 5.7%
Top 6 Seed 40.7% 42.8% 10.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.6% 72.0% 34.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.9% 67.5% 31.6%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 7.7
.500 or above 92.8% 94.3% 70.5%
.500 or above in Conference 79.5% 81.3% 53.6%
Conference Champion 17.9% 18.8% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.1% 5.3%
First Four4.0% 3.9% 4.0%
First Round67.6% 70.1% 31.9%
Second Round47.4% 49.4% 18.1%
Sweet Sixteen25.7% 27.0% 6.8%
Elite Eight13.2% 13.9% 2.9%
Final Four6.6% 6.9% 1.2%
Championship Game3.2% 3.4% 0.4%
National Champion1.5% 1.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 25 - 210 - 8
Quad 36 - 116 - 9
Quad 47 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 155   Mercer W 85-69 94%    
  Nov 13, 2021 225   Gardner-Webb W 85-65 97%    
  Nov 17, 2021 107   Northern Iowa W 85-73 86%    
  Nov 22, 2021 89   Kansas St. W 76-68 75%    
  Nov 28, 2021 187   Penn W 86-68 93%    
  Dec 01, 2021 334   Central Arkansas W 96-68 99%    
  Dec 04, 2021 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 86-63 97%    
  Dec 07, 2021 178   Charlotte W 78-61 92%    
  Dec 11, 2021 40   Oklahoma W 76-73 59%    
  Dec 18, 2021 192   Hofstra W 88-70 93%    
  Dec 21, 2021 217   Elon W 84-64 95%    
  Dec 29, 2021 56   @ Mississippi St. W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 04, 2022 92   Vanderbilt W 83-72 81%    
  Jan 08, 2022 94   @ Texas A&M W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 12, 2022 84   Missouri W 81-71 79%    
  Jan 15, 2022 36   @ LSU L 82-83 47%    
  Jan 18, 2022 104   South Carolina W 90-78 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 94   Texas A&M W 78-67 81%    
  Jan 26, 2022 66   @ Mississippi W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 32   West Virginia W 81-76 65%    
  Feb 02, 2022 133   @ Georgia W 88-80 75%    
  Feb 05, 2022 56   Mississippi St. W 78-70 73%    
  Feb 08, 2022 26   Auburn W 83-79 63%    
  Feb 12, 2022 15   @ Alabama L 83-87 38%    
  Feb 15, 2022 84   @ Missouri W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 19, 2022 23   Tennessee W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 22, 2022 33   @ Florida L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 14   Kentucky W 79-77 56%    
  Mar 02, 2022 36   LSU W 85-80 66%    
  Mar 05, 2022 23   @ Tennessee L 74-76 42%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.8 4.9 3.1 1.2 17.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 5.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.0 1.4 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.4 1.7 0.2 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.8 5.2 6.6 8.4 10.0 10.5 11.3 10.9 10.2 8.2 5.7 3.2 1.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 97.6% 3.1    2.9 0.3 0.0
16-2 86.5% 4.9    3.7 1.1 0.1
15-3 58.7% 4.8    2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 28.6% 2.9    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.0% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 11.2 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 100.0% 59.4% 40.6% 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.2% 100.0% 46.3% 53.7% 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.7% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.2% 100.0% 30.1% 69.8% 3.0 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.2% 99.6% 22.0% 77.6% 4.2 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-5 10.9% 97.7% 16.2% 81.5% 5.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.3%
12-6 11.3% 93.3% 9.7% 83.6% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 92.6%
11-7 10.5% 81.9% 6.1% 75.9% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 80.8%
10-8 10.0% 64.1% 4.1% 60.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.6 62.6%
9-9 8.4% 42.2% 2.0% 40.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.9 41.1%
8-10 6.6% 16.9% 1.2% 15.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 15.9%
7-11 5.2% 5.2% 0.8% 4.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 4.4%
6-12 3.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.6%
5-13 2.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.2%
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.6% 13.2% 56.4% 5.8 6.4 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.6 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.3 4.6 4.5 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 30.4 64.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 85.0 15.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 85.6 12.5 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 68.3 31.7