IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.1	#76
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.8	#134
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.5	#74

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.6	#77

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.9%	1.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	3.1%	3.5%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	5.9%	6.6%	0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	26.9%	29.5%	8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	16.5%	18.5%	3.5%
Average Seed	9.1	9.0	10.9

.500 or above	80.0%	84.1%	50.6%
.500 or above in Conference	77.0%	80.1%	55.3%
Conference Champion	13.9%	15.3%	4.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.8%	0.6%	2.5%

First Four	4.2%	4.6%	1.6%
First Round	24.7%	27.1%	7.6%
Second Round	11.8%	13.1%	2.6%
Sweet Sixteen	4.7%	5.3%	0.7%
Elite Eight	1.9%	2.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.7%	0.8%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 2	3 - 3	4 - 7
Quad 3	7 - 3	11 - 10
Quad 4	8 - 1	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	209	Utah Valley	W	81-69	88%
Nov 13, 2021	111	@ UC Irvine	L	70-71	50%
Nov 18, 2021	28	St. Bonaventure	L	66-71	32%
Nov 26, 2021	203	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	73-61	85%
Nov 30, 2021	79	Saint Louis	W	74-71	61%
Dec 03, 2021	108	Tulsa	W	72-66	68%
Dec 07, 2021	296	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	83-72	83%
Dec 10, 2021	232	Prairie View	W	79-65	87%
Dec 14, 2021	124	Santa Clara	W	79-72	72%
Dec 22, 2021	69	Washington St.	L	71-72	46%
Dec 28, 2021	138	Fresno St.	W	74-66	75%
Jan 01, 2022	156	@ Wyoming	W	77-73	61%
Jan 04, 2022	72	@ Utah St.	L	70-74	39%
Jan 07, 2022	51	Colorado St.	W	75-74	52%
Jan 12, 2022	63	@ Nevada	L	73-78	36%
Jan 18, 2022	306	Air Force	W	76-58	93%
Jan 22, 2022	42	@ San Diego St.	L	65-72	29%
Jan 25, 2022	156	Wyoming	W	80-70	77%
Jan 28, 2022	138	@ Fresno St.	W	71-69	57%
Feb 05, 2022	322	San Jose St.	W	89-69	94%
Feb 08, 2022	240	@ New Mexico	W	75-67	75%
Feb 11, 2022	145	UNLV	W	75-67	75%
Feb 15, 2022	306	@ Air Force	W	73-61	83%
Feb 19, 2022	72	Utah St.	W	73-71	58%
Feb 22, 2022	42	San Diego St.	L	68-69	47%
Feb 26, 2022	145	@ UNLV	W	72-70	58%
Mar 01, 2022	63	Nevada	W	76-75	54%
Mar 05, 2022	51	@ Colorado St.	L	72-77	34%
Projected Record						18 - 10	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.6	2.3	4.1	4.0	2.2	0.7		13.9	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.5	4.5	5.3	2.6	0.5				14.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.1	5.6	4.8	1.3	0.1					14.2	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.7	5.6	3.8	0.8	0.0						13.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.5	2.9	5.4	3.2	0.5	0.0							12.5	5th
6th							0.1	0.7	2.9	4.6	2.4	0.3									11.0	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.8	2.8	3.5	1.5	0.2	0.0									8.9	7th
8th					0.1	0.9	2.2	2.1	0.8	0.1											6.3	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	0.8	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.0												3.5	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0													1.4	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.4	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.5	2.5	4.1	6.0	7.9	9.5	10.9	11.3	11.5	10.7	8.9	6.8	4.4	2.2	0.7			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
17-1	100.0%	2.2		2.1	0.1
16-2	89.3%	4.0		3.0	0.9	0.0
15-3	60.1%	4.1		2.1	1.7	0.3	0.0
14-4	25.8%	2.3		0.6	1.1	0.5	0.1
13-5	6.0%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.5%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	13.9%	13.9		8.7	4.1	1.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.7%		99.1%	59.9%	39.1%	2.8		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0								0.0		97.6%
17-1	2.2%		97.8%	55.6%	42.2%	4.6		0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		95.0%
16-2	4.4%		91.2%	40.8%	50.4%	6.7		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.4		85.1%
15-3	6.8%		78.7%	29.8%	48.9%	8.6		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.5		69.6%
14-4	8.9%		58.8%	22.2%	36.5%	9.9			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.9	0.9	1.3	0.9	0.2	0.0			3.6		47.0%
13-5	10.7%		40.4%	17.4%	22.9%	10.9					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0		6.4		27.8%
12-6	11.5%		23.8%	12.3%	11.4%	11.5							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0		8.8		13.0%
11-7	11.3%		11.0%	6.8%	4.2%	12.0									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0		10.1		4.5%
10-8	10.9%		5.3%	4.0%	1.3%	12.5											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	10.4		1.4%
9-9	9.5%		3.2%	2.8%	0.3%	13.0											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.2		0.4%
8-10	7.9%		1.7%	1.7%	0.1%	13.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.7		0.1%
7-11	6.0%		0.9%	0.9%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.9
6-12	4.1%		0.4%	0.4%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	4.0
5-13	2.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.5
4-14	1.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
3-15	0.7%																							0.7
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		26.9%	12.4%	14.4%	9.1		0.3	0.6	0.9	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.6	1.8	2.7	3.2	4.8	5.1	1.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	73.1		16.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.8	44.7	36.0	16.5	2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	2.2	35.6	32.9	16.0	12.3		3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	3.2	10.6	37.9	21.2		19.7		10.6