Preseason Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#76
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.8#134
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#77
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.1% 3.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 5.9% 6.6% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.9% 29.5% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.5% 18.5% 3.5%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 10.9
.500 or above 80.0% 84.1% 50.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 80.1% 55.3%
Conference Champion 13.9% 15.3% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 2.5%
First Four4.2% 4.6% 1.6%
First Round24.7% 27.1% 7.6%
Second Round11.8% 13.1% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 5.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 34 - 7
Quad 37 - 311 - 10
Quad 48 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 209   Utah Valley W 81-69 88%    
  Nov 13, 2021 111   @ UC Irvine L 70-71 50%    
  Nov 18, 2021 28   St. Bonaventure L 66-71 32%    
  Nov 26, 2021 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-61 85%    
  Nov 30, 2021 79   Saint Louis W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 03, 2021 108   Tulsa W 72-66 68%    
  Dec 07, 2021 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 83-72 83%    
  Dec 10, 2021 232   Prairie View W 79-65 87%    
  Dec 14, 2021 124   Santa Clara W 79-72 72%    
  Dec 22, 2021 69   Washington St. L 71-72 46%    
  Dec 28, 2021 138   Fresno St. W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 01, 2022 156   @ Wyoming W 77-73 61%    
  Jan 04, 2022 72   @ Utah St. L 70-74 39%    
  Jan 07, 2022 51   Colorado St. W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 12, 2022 63   @ Nevada L 73-78 36%    
  Jan 18, 2022 306   Air Force W 76-58 93%    
  Jan 22, 2022 42   @ San Diego St. L 65-72 29%    
  Jan 25, 2022 156   Wyoming W 80-70 77%    
  Jan 28, 2022 138   @ Fresno St. W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 322   San Jose St. W 89-69 94%    
  Feb 08, 2022 240   @ New Mexico W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 11, 2022 145   UNLV W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 15, 2022 306   @ Air Force W 73-61 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 72   Utah St. W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 22, 2022 42   San Diego St. L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 26, 2022 145   @ UNLV W 72-70 58%    
  Mar 01, 2022 63   Nevada W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 51   @ Colorado St. L 72-77 34%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.1 4.0 2.2 0.7 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.5 5.3 2.6 0.5 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.6 4.8 1.3 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.6 2.4 0.3 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.0 7.9 9.5 10.9 11.3 11.5 10.7 8.9 6.8 4.4 2.2 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
16-2 89.3% 4.0    3.0 0.9 0.0
15-3 60.1% 4.1    2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 25.8% 2.3    0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1
13-5 6.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 8.7 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 99.1% 59.9% 39.1% 2.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
17-1 2.2% 97.8% 55.6% 42.2% 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0%
16-2 4.4% 91.2% 40.8% 50.4% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 85.1%
15-3 6.8% 78.7% 29.8% 48.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 69.6%
14-4 8.9% 58.8% 22.2% 36.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.6 47.0%
13-5 10.7% 40.4% 17.4% 22.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.4 27.8%
12-6 11.5% 23.8% 12.3% 11.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.8 13.0%
11-7 11.3% 11.0% 6.8% 4.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.1 4.5%
10-8 10.9% 5.3% 4.0% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.4 1.4%
9-9 9.5% 3.2% 2.8% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.4%
8-10 7.9% 1.7% 1.7% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.1%
7-11 6.0% 0.9% 0.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
6-12 4.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.9% 12.4% 14.4% 9.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.7 3.2 4.8 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 73.1 16.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 44.7 36.0 16.5 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 35.6 32.9 16.0 12.3 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.2 10.6 37.9 21.2 19.7 10.6