Preseason Rankings
Buffalo
Mid-American
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#83
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.7#15
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 2.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 10.0% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 17.4% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.4% 57.7% 26.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.2% 28.0% 5.8%
Average Seed 10.8 8.7 11.2
.500 or above 86.3% 98.6% 85.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 99.0% 92.3%
Conference Champion 33.0% 57.4% 30.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.4% 4.9% 2.2%
First Round28.4% 55.4% 26.0%
Second Round10.6% 28.7% 8.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 12.6% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.4% 5.1% 1.0%
Final Four0.5% 2.0% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 8.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 37 - 39 - 9
Quad 411 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 2   @ Michigan L 69-84 8%    
  Nov 15, 2021 123   @ North Texas W 71-70 52%    
  Nov 20, 2021 248   Rider W 86-71 90%    
  Nov 23, 2021 153   Stephen F. Austin W 83-77 69%    
  Dec 04, 2021 28   @ St. Bonaventure L 69-78 23%    
  Dec 08, 2021 100   @ Western Kentucky L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 18, 2021 265   @ Canisius W 86-77 78%    
  Dec 21, 2021 111   UC Irvine W 79-74 67%    
  Dec 29, 2021 152   Miami (OH) W 81-72 76%    
  Jan 01, 2022 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 82-71 82%    
  Jan 04, 2022 314   @ Northern Illinois W 81-69 84%    
  Jan 08, 2022 150   Bowling Green W 87-79 75%    
  Jan 11, 2022 284   @ Western Michigan W 81-71 80%    
  Jan 14, 2022 199   @ Ball St. W 84-78 68%    
  Jan 18, 2022 279   Central Michigan W 93-77 90%    
  Jan 22, 2022 132   Kent St. W 84-77 72%    
  Jan 25, 2022 114   @ Toledo L 81-82 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 91   Ohio W 83-79 62%    
  Feb 01, 2022 128   @ Akron W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 279   @ Central Michigan W 90-80 79%    
  Feb 08, 2022 300   Eastern Michigan W 85-68 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 199   Ball St. W 87-75 82%    
  Feb 15, 2022 150   @ Bowling Green W 84-82 57%    
  Feb 19, 2022 284   Western Michigan W 84-68 90%    
  Feb 22, 2022 152   @ Miami (OH) W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 314   Northern Illinois W 84-66 92%    
  Mar 01, 2022 114   Toledo W 85-79 67%    
  Mar 04, 2022 132   @ Kent St. W 81-80 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.4 7.7 8.7 6.9 3.0 33.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 5.9 6.4 3.8 1.2 0.1 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.1 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.7 7.2 9.0 10.8 12.0 12.3 11.7 9.8 7.0 3.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.0    3.0
19-1 98.6% 6.9    6.4 0.5
18-2 88.1% 8.7    6.9 1.7 0.1
17-3 65.8% 7.7    4.8 2.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 36.1% 4.4    2.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
15-5 14.6% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.0% 33.0 23.7 7.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.0% 92.1% 68.1% 23.9% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 75.1%
19-1 7.0% 78.3% 54.5% 23.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 52.3%
18-2 9.8% 61.6% 46.1% 15.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.8 28.8%
17-3 11.7% 45.4% 36.8% 8.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.4 13.6%
16-4 12.3% 30.2% 26.8% 3.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 8.6 4.5%
15-5 12.0% 20.3% 19.4% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.6 1.1%
14-6 10.8% 14.8% 14.4% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.2 0.5%
13-7 9.0% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 8.1 0.1%
12-8 7.2% 7.7% 7.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.6
11-9 5.7% 4.7% 4.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.5
10-10 4.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0
9-11 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
8-12 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 1.1% 1.1
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 29.4% 23.9% 5.5% 10.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.0 3.8 7.0 5.4 2.6 1.1 0.3 70.6 7.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.3 31.1 30.2 22.3 11.5 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.2 17.8 17.8 27.4 37.0