IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal Poly
Big West
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.9	#305
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.3	#258
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.5	#308

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.5	#283

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.3%	2.8%	0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.6	15.3

.500 or above	11.4%	26.8%	6.6%
.500 or above in Conference	20.1%	35.2%	15.3%
Conference Champion	0.9%	2.3%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	28.4%	14.9%	32.6%

First Four	0.4%	0.6%	0.3%
First Round	1.1%	2.5%	0.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 6
Quad 3	2 - 9	2 - 14
Quad 4	7 - 7	9 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	130	North Dakota St.	L	63-70	24%
Nov 15, 2021	287	Sacramento St.	W	68-66	57%
Nov 19, 2021	124	@ Santa Clara	L	65-79	11%
Nov 22, 2021	230	Nicholls St.	L	72-76	36%
Dec 02, 2021	215	@ California Baptist	L	71-79	24%
Dec 05, 2021	170	@ San Diego	L	66-77	18%
Dec 11, 2021	220	@ Portland St.	L	67-75	26%
Dec 13, 2021	307	@ Portland	L	73-76	41%
Dec 17, 2021	138	@ Fresno St.	L	61-74	15%
Dec 22, 2021	3	@ UCLA	L	53-81	1%
Dec 30, 2021	271	Long Beach St.	W	76-75	53%
Jan 01, 2022	231	Cal St. Fullerton	L	75-76	46%
Jan 06, 2022	97	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	60-76	9%
Jan 08, 2022	296	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	72-76	38%
Jan 13, 2022	148	UC Riverside	L	64-70	30%
Jan 15, 2022	208	UC Davis	L	70-73	41%
Jan 18, 2022	203	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	60-69	24%
Jan 22, 2022	202	Hawaii	L	66-69	41%
Jan 27, 2022	263	@ UC San Diego	L	70-75	33%
Jan 29, 2022	111	@ UC Irvine	L	61-76	11%
Feb 03, 2022	231	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	72-79	28%
Feb 05, 2022	271	@ Long Beach St.	L	73-78	35%
Feb 10, 2022	296	Cal St. Northridge	W	75-73	57%
Feb 12, 2022	97	UC Santa Barbara	L	63-73	21%
Feb 17, 2022	208	@ UC Davis	L	67-76	24%
Feb 19, 2022	148	@ UC Riverside	L	61-73	17%
Feb 22, 2022	203	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	63-66	41%
Feb 25, 2022	202	@ Hawaii	L	63-72	24%
Mar 03, 2022	111	UC Irvine	L	64-73	23%
Mar 05, 2022	263	UC San Diego	W	73-72	52%
Projected Record						9 - 21	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0				1.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	0.9	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0						3.2	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	0.6	1.5	1.7	0.7	0.1	0.0							4.7	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	0.9	2.3	2.1	0.7	0.1	0.0								6.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.3	2.9	2.5	0.7	0.1	0.0									7.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.5	2.1	4.0	2.7	0.7	0.1											10.1	7th
8th					0.1	0.8	3.2	4.6	2.9	0.6	0.0												12.2	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	1.7	4.2	5.1	2.6	0.5	0.0													14.5	9th
10th		0.1	1.1	3.5	5.5	4.6	2.0	0.4	0.0														17.3	10th
11th	1.7	4.2	5.8	5.2	3.0	1.0	0.2	0.0															21.0	11th

Total	1.7	4.3	6.9	9.0	10.2	10.8	10.9	10.0	8.9	7.3	6.1	4.8	3.5	2.2	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
18-2	95.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	78.6%	0.2		0.1	0.1
16-4	49.4%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
15-5	23.5%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	6.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%											0.0												0.0
19-1	0.0%		52.9%	26.5%	26.5%	10.8						0.0	0.0					0.0	0.0		0.0			0.0		36.0%
18-2	0.1%		45.3%	43.2%	2.2%	12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		3.8%
17-3	0.3%		22.3%	22.3%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
16-4	0.5%		17.5%	17.0%	0.5%	13.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4		0.6%
15-5	0.9%		13.5%	13.5%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8
14-6	1.6%		11.2%	11.2%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	1.4
13-7	2.2%		6.7%	6.7%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	2.1
12-8	3.5%		3.7%	3.7%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.4
11-9	4.8%		3.2%	3.2%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	4.6
10-10	6.1%		1.6%	1.6%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	6.0
9-11	7.3%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																0.0	0.1	7.1
8-12	8.9%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	8.9
7-13	10.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
6-14	10.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.9
5-15	10.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
4-16	10.2%																							10.2
3-17	9.0%																							9.0
2-18	6.9%																							6.9
1-19	4.3%																							4.3
0-20	1.7%																							1.7

Total	100%		1.3%	1.3%	0.0%	15.0						0.0	0.0					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	98.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.8%