Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#231
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.0#46
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#171
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#294
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 9.5% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.9 14.9
.500 or above 39.1% 69.2% 32.6%
.500 or above in Conference 45.5% 68.4% 40.6%
Conference Champion 4.1% 9.5% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 3.3% 11.9%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round4.1% 9.1% 3.0%
Second Round0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 17.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 410 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 124   @ Santa Clara L 75-85 18%    
  Nov 11, 2021 322   @ San Jose St. W 85-82 60%    
  Nov 16, 2021 238   George Washington W 80-76 62%    
  Nov 19, 2021 170   @ San Diego L 76-83 28%    
  Nov 23, 2021 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-76 66%    
  Nov 24, 2021 324   @ Northern Arizona W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 29, 2021 156   Wyoming L 80-81 46%    
  Dec 04, 2021 137   Pacific L 74-77 40%    
  Dec 08, 2021 42   @ San Diego St. L 64-82 7%    
  Dec 30, 2021 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-74 35%    
  Jan 01, 2022 305   @ Cal Poly W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 04, 2022 271   Long Beach St. W 86-81 66%    
  Jan 06, 2022 202   Hawaii W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 13, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 86-79 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 97   UC Santa Barbara L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 20, 2022 111   @ UC Irvine L 70-81 19%    
  Jan 22, 2022 263   UC San Diego W 82-77 64%    
  Jan 27, 2022 208   @ UC Davis L 76-81 36%    
  Jan 29, 2022 148   @ UC Riverside L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 03, 2022 305   Cal Poly W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 08, 2022 271   @ Long Beach St. L 83-84 48%    
  Feb 13, 2022 202   @ Hawaii L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 17, 2022 97   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-81 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 83-82 52%    
  Feb 24, 2022 111   UC Irvine L 73-78 35%    
  Feb 26, 2022 263   @ UC San Diego L 79-80 46%    
  Mar 03, 2022 148   UC Riverside L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 05, 2022 208   UC Davis W 79-78 54%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 3.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.9 1.5 0.2 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.3 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.3 3.0 0.9 0.1 11.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.7 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.8 11th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.0 6.8 7.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.5 8.7 7.9 6.2 4.8 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 91.4% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 70.0% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 44.3% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.6% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 70.8% 62.3% 8.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.4%
19-1 0.2% 54.7% 49.9% 4.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.5%
18-2 0.7% 37.4% 36.1% 1.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.0%
17-3 1.4% 29.6% 29.0% 0.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9%
16-4 2.4% 22.8% 22.4% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.5%
15-5 3.7% 17.2% 17.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.1
14-6 4.8% 11.4% 11.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.2
13-7 6.2% 8.2% 8.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 5.7
12-8 7.9% 5.7% 5.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.4
11-9 8.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.4
10-10 9.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
9-11 9.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.7
8-12 9.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.4
7-13 9.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.0
6-14 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
5-15 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
4-16 5.0% 5.0
3-17 3.3% 3.3
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.4% 4.3% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%