IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.3	#296
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.3	#85
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.4	#224

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.9	#334

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.6%	6.3%	1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	13.7	14.9

.500 or above	11.9%	50.2%	11.4%
.500 or above in Conference	23.3%	60.2%	22.9%
Conference Champion	1.2%	6.7%	1.2%
Last Place in Conference	24.5%	5.5%	24.8%

First Four	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
First Round	1.4%	6.0%	1.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 6
Quad 3	2 - 8	2 - 14
Quad 4	6 - 6	9 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	20	@ USC	L	62-86	1%
Nov 13, 2021	45	@ Notre Dame	L	67-88	3%
Nov 19, 2021	219	Eastern Washington	L	81-82	45%
Nov 28, 2021	170	@ San Diego	L	73-83	19%
Dec 04, 2021	138	@ Fresno St.	L	67-79	15%
Dec 07, 2021	76	Boise St.	L	72-83	17%
Dec 10, 2021	130	@ North Dakota St.	L	66-79	14%
Dec 18, 2021	220	Portland St.	L	78-79	46%
Dec 30, 2021	111	@ UC Irvine	L	67-82	12%
Jan 01, 2022	263	@ UC San Diego	L	76-81	35%
Jan 06, 2022	203	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	70-72	43%
Jan 08, 2022	305	Cal Poly	W	76-72	62%
Jan 13, 2022	231	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	79-86	30%
Jan 15, 2022	271	@ Long Beach St.	L	80-84	36%
Jan 20, 2022	208	UC Davis	L	77-79	43%
Jan 22, 2022	148	UC Riverside	L	70-76	32%
Jan 25, 2022	97	UC Santa Barbara	L	69-79	22%
Jan 28, 2022	202	@ Hawaii	L	70-78	25%
Feb 03, 2022	263	UC San Diego	W	79-78	54%
Feb 05, 2022	111	UC Irvine	L	70-79	25%
Feb 10, 2022	305	@ Cal Poly	L	73-75	43%
Feb 12, 2022	203	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	67-75	26%
Feb 17, 2022	271	Long Beach St.	W	83-81	55%
Feb 19, 2022	231	Cal St. Fullerton	L	82-83	48%
Feb 24, 2022	148	@ UC Riverside	L	67-79	18%
Feb 26, 2022	208	@ UC Davis	L	74-82	26%
Mar 01, 2022	97	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	66-82	11%
Mar 05, 2022	202	Hawaii	L	73-75	43%
Projected Record						8 - 20	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0				2.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.3	1.1	1.3	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0					3.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	0.6	1.6	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0							5.3	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.0	2.6	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0								7.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.5	3.4	2.7	0.8	0.1										8.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	2.2	4.1	2.9	0.8	0.1	0.0										10.5	7th
8th					0.1	0.8	3.1	4.7	2.8	0.7	0.0												12.3	8th
9th			0.0	0.3	1.7	4.3	5.1	2.6	0.6	0.0													14.6	9th
10th		0.1	1.0	3.3	5.2	4.3	1.9	0.4	0.0														16.2	10th
11th	1.2	3.4	4.6	4.5	2.7	0.9	0.1	0.0															17.6	11th

Total	1.2	3.6	5.6	8.1	9.6	10.3	10.6	10.2	9.2	8.1	6.8	5.2	4.1	2.9	1.9	1.2	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
18-2	98.7%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	72.0%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
16-4	51.5%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
15-5	19.9%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	7.7%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.2%	1.2		0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		51.2%	51.2%		6.8				0.0			0.0					0.0			0.0			0.0
19-1	0.0%		45.7%	45.7%		13.1												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
18-2	0.1%		39.0%	37.7%	1.3%	13.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		2.2%
17-3	0.4%		31.3%	29.9%	1.3%	13.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2		1.9%
16-4	0.7%		16.8%	16.5%	0.3%	13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6		0.4%
15-5	1.2%		15.1%	15.1%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.0
14-6	1.9%		9.2%	9.2%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.7
13-7	2.9%		6.3%	6.3%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	2.7
12-8	4.1%		4.8%	4.8%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.9
11-9	5.2%		3.0%	3.0%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	5.0
10-10	6.8%		1.8%	1.8%		15.8																0.0	0.1	6.7
9-11	8.1%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																0.0	0.1	8.0
8-12	9.2%		1.0%	1.0%		15.9																0.0	0.1	9.1
7-13	10.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
6-14	10.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
5-15	10.3%																							10.3
4-16	9.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.6
3-17	8.1%																							8.1
2-18	5.6%																							5.6
1-19	3.6%																							3.6
0-20	1.2%																							1.2

Total	100%		1.6%	1.6%	0.0%	14.9				0.0			0.0					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	98.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.8%