Preseason Rankings
California
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#113
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.8#322
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#159
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.7% 3.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 13.3% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.0% 12.2% 1.9%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 9.7
.500 or above 34.8% 38.2% 9.9%
.500 or above in Conference 20.8% 22.7% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 28.1% 25.3% 48.4%
First Four2.0% 2.2% 0.5%
First Round10.8% 12.1% 1.7%
Second Round5.4% 6.0% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 88.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 23 - 54 - 14
Quad 35 - 39 - 17
Quad 45 - 114 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 263   UC San Diego W 76-63 88%    
  Nov 13, 2021 145   @ UNLV L 65-66 47%    
  Nov 15, 2021 170   San Diego W 72-65 73%    
  Nov 18, 2021 122   Southern Utah W 72-68 63%    
  Nov 22, 2021 33   Florida L 64-72 24%    
  Nov 28, 2021 138   Fresno St. W 67-62 66%    
  Dec 02, 2021 70   Oregon St. L 64-65 46%    
  Dec 05, 2021 88   @ Utah L 64-69 34%    
  Dec 08, 2021 236   Idaho St. W 69-58 81%    
  Dec 11, 2021 124   Santa Clara W 71-67 62%    
  Dec 19, 2021 270   Dartmouth W 72-59 85%    
  Dec 22, 2021 137   Pacific W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 02, 2022 71   @ Stanford L 63-70 29%    
  Jan 06, 2022 20   USC L 62-69 30%    
  Jan 08, 2022 3   UCLA L 59-69 20%    
  Jan 12, 2022 95   @ Washington L 67-72 36%    
  Jan 15, 2022 69   @ Washington St. L 62-69 28%    
  Jan 19, 2022 61   Arizona St. L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 23, 2022 31   Arizona L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 27, 2022 3   @ UCLA L 56-72 10%    
  Jan 29, 2022 20   @ USC L 59-72 16%    
  Feb 03, 2022 95   Washington W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 69   Washington St. L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 09, 2022 70   @ Oregon St. L 61-68 29%    
  Feb 12, 2022 19   @ Oregon L 61-74 16%    
  Feb 17, 2022 47   Colorado L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 19, 2022 88   Utah W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 26, 2022 71   Stanford L 66-67 47%    
  Mar 03, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. L 68-76 27%    
  Mar 05, 2022 31   @ Arizona L 61-72 19%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 3.4 5.2 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 16.3 11th
12th 1.6 4.0 5.5 5.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 20.3 12th
Total 1.6 4.1 6.5 8.7 10.2 10.6 10.8 10.1 8.9 7.7 6.1 4.9 3.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 97.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 69.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 38.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 84.6% 15.4% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 52.4% 47.6% 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 98.9% 19.6% 79.3% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
15-5 1.0% 98.1% 12.7% 85.4% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
14-6 1.7% 92.3% 7.9% 84.4% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.7%
13-7 2.5% 83.3% 6.9% 76.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 82.1%
12-8 3.7% 64.4% 3.9% 60.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 63.0%
11-9 4.9% 42.1% 2.5% 39.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.8 40.6%
10-10 6.1% 22.0% 1.3% 20.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 4.7 21.0%
9-11 7.7% 5.7% 0.4% 5.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.2 5.3%
8-12 8.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.9%
7-13 10.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.1%
6-14 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0%
5-15 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-16 10.2% 10.2
3-17 8.7% 8.7
2-18 6.5% 6.5
1-19 4.1% 4.1
0-20 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 11.9% 1.1% 10.8% 8.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.1 11.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 78.8 21.2
Lose Out 0.0%