Preseason Rankings
Chattanooga
Southern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#135
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.1#261
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 2.1% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 28.2% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 5.2% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.6 11.7 13.3
.500 or above 72.3% 91.1% 66.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 89.2% 70.7%
Conference Champion 18.7% 31.1% 14.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 0.8% 3.7%
First Four1.0% 2.0% 0.7%
First Round16.0% 27.3% 12.5%
Second Round3.4% 7.8% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 2.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 412 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 82   @ Loyola Marymount L 65-73 24%    
  Nov 14, 2021 252   UNC Asheville W 78-68 82%    
  Nov 16, 2021 301   Tennessee Tech W 79-66 87%    
  Nov 20, 2021 77   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-75 25%    
  Nov 27, 2021 235   College of Charleston W 72-63 78%    
  Nov 30, 2021 301   @ Tennessee Tech W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 05, 2021 226   @ Lipscomb W 71-68 59%    
  Dec 08, 2021 252   @ UNC Asheville W 75-71 63%    
  Dec 15, 2021 81   @ Belmont L 71-79 27%    
  Dec 18, 2021 125   @ Murray St. L 67-71 38%    
  Dec 22, 2021 267   Middle Tennessee W 77-66 82%    
  Dec 30, 2021 141   East Tennessee St. W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 01, 2022 155   @ Mercer L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 05, 2022 139   @ Wofford L 67-70 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 272   The Citadel W 84-73 82%    
  Jan 12, 2022 309   @ Western Carolina W 78-70 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 109   Furman W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 20, 2022 149   @ UNC Greensboro L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 22, 2022 218   @ VMI W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 26, 2022 139   Wofford W 70-67 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 272   @ The Citadel W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 02, 2022 255   @ Samford W 80-75 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 155   Mercer W 73-68 64%    
  Feb 09, 2022 309   Western Carolina W 81-67 86%    
  Feb 12, 2022 109   @ Furman L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 17, 2022 149   UNC Greensboro W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 19, 2022 218   VMI W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 23, 2022 141   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-70 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 255   Samford W 83-72 79%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.8 5.0 4.4 2.6 0.8 18.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.4 4.3 1.9 0.3 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.0 5.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 4.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 3.7 1.1 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.0 4.5 5.9 7.6 9.0 10.3 10.9 11.0 10.2 8.8 6.9 4.6 2.6 0.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.5 0.1
16-2 93.9% 4.4    3.7 0.7 0.0
15-3 72.7% 5.0    3.4 1.5 0.1
14-4 43.3% 3.8    1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.4% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 12.7 4.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 86.1% 64.7% 21.4% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 60.7%
17-1 2.6% 68.5% 54.0% 14.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 31.5%
16-2 4.6% 53.9% 44.8% 9.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 16.6%
15-3 6.9% 39.9% 36.7% 3.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.1 5.0%
14-4 8.8% 28.6% 27.8% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.3 1.2%
13-5 10.2% 21.0% 20.7% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 8.1 0.4%
12-6 11.0% 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 9.4 0.0%
11-7 10.9% 9.8% 9.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.8
10-8 10.3% 6.7% 6.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.6
9-9 9.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8.6
8-10 7.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.4
7-11 5.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.8
6-12 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 3.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.5% 15.2% 1.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 3.2 4.1 3.3 2.0 0.9 83.5 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 9.1 5.8 29.9 30.5 16.6 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 5.1 10.3 39.7 11.8 19.1 10.3 8.8