Preseason Rankings
Colorado
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#47
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#280
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.1% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 4.7% 5.1% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 12.1% 13.0% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 20.6% 22.0% 3.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.5% 49.0% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.3% 44.8% 13.9%
Average Seed 6.9 6.9 8.5
.500 or above 74.5% 77.3% 39.2%
.500 or above in Conference 58.8% 61.1% 29.5%
Conference Champion 8.0% 8.5% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 5.0% 16.9%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 2.8%
First Round44.6% 47.0% 14.2%
Second Round27.2% 28.9% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen12.4% 13.2% 2.4%
Elite Eight5.5% 5.9% 0.9%
Final Four2.3% 2.5% 0.4%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 35 - 113 - 12
Quad 45 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 204   Montana St. W 76-61 93%    
  Nov 13, 2021 240   New Mexico W 76-58 94%    
  Nov 15, 2021 337   Maine W 74-49 99%    
  Nov 19, 2021 140   Southern Illinois W 70-62 77%    
  Nov 28, 2021 71   Stanford W 70-65 67%    
  Dec 01, 2021 3   @ UCLA L 61-71 20%    
  Dec 04, 2021 23   Tennessee W 67-66 51%    
  Dec 08, 2021 219   Eastern Washington W 82-66 91%    
  Dec 10, 2021 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-63 90%    
  Dec 18, 2021 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-56 89%    
  Dec 21, 2021 4   Kansas L 67-71 38%    
  Dec 30, 2021 19   @ Oregon L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 01, 2022 70   @ Oregon St. L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 06, 2022 69   Washington St. W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 09, 2022 95   Washington W 75-67 73%    
  Jan 13, 2022 31   @ Arizona L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 15, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 20, 2022 20   USC L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 22, 2022 3   UCLA L 64-68 38%    
  Jan 27, 2022 95   @ Washington W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 30, 2022 69   @ Washington St. L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 03, 2022 19   Oregon L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 70   Oregon St. W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 88   Utah W 72-65 71%    
  Feb 17, 2022 113   @ California W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 71   @ Stanford L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 24, 2022 61   Arizona St. W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 31   Arizona W 69-68 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 88   @ Utah W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 8.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.0 2.0 0.8 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 3.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.1 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.7 0.7 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.4 5.9 7.1 8.3 8.9 9.3 9.3 9.3 8.0 7.3 5.8 4.3 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
18-2 92.9% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 73.0% 2.1    1.4 0.6 0.0
16-4 44.9% 1.9    1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.1% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 5.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 56.0% 44.0% 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.8% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 2.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 99.6% 25.6% 74.1% 3.9 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 5.8% 99.2% 19.1% 80.1% 5.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
14-6 7.3% 96.6% 14.1% 82.5% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 96.0%
13-7 8.0% 89.2% 10.2% 79.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 88.0%
12-8 9.3% 77.4% 6.2% 71.2% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.1 75.9%
11-9 9.3% 55.9% 4.0% 51.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 4.1 54.0%
10-10 9.3% 33.3% 1.8% 31.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.2 32.1%
9-11 8.9% 12.0% 1.1% 10.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.8 11.0%
8-12 8.3% 3.2% 0.8% 2.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.0 2.4%
7-13 7.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.2%
6-14 5.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.1%
5-15 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
4-16 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 46.5% 7.3% 39.2% 6.9 2.0 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.5 42.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.8 11.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 45.1 54.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 56.5 43.5