Preseason Rankings
Connecticut
Big East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#25
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.8#308
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.1% 9.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 20.5% 20.5% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 31.8% 31.9% 2.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.9% 60.0% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.6% 52.7% 8.7%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 9.7
.500 or above 87.1% 87.2% 34.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 76.0% 27.0%
Conference Champion 19.1% 19.2% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.9% 23.2%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 1.0%
First Round58.3% 58.4% 11.7%
Second Round39.7% 39.7% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen20.5% 20.5% 2.1%
Elite Eight10.6% 10.6% 0.0%
Final Four5.1% 5.2% 0.0%
Championship Game2.5% 2.5% 0.0%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 310 - 9
Quad 34 - 114 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 346   Central Connecticut St. W 87-57 99.8%   
  Nov 13, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 90-62 99%    
  Nov 17, 2021 254   LIU Brooklyn W 83-62 97%    
  Nov 20, 2021 327   Binghamton W 80-54 99%    
  Nov 24, 2021 26   Auburn W 73-72 52%    
  Nov 30, 2021 356   Maryland Eastern Shore W 83-46 99.9%   
  Dec 04, 2021 312   Grambling St. W 81-56 98%    
  Dec 08, 2021 32   @ West Virginia L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 11, 2021 28   St. Bonaventure W 65-64 52%    
  Dec 18, 2021 65   Providence W 70-62 73%    
  Dec 21, 2021 78   @ Marquette W 69-66 59%    
  Dec 28, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 01, 2022 64   Butler W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 08, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 12, 2022 52   St. John's W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 65   @ Providence W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 20, 2022 64   @ Butler W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 25, 2022 86   Georgetown W 75-65 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 112   @ DePaul W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 01, 2022 48   Creighton W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 05, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 08, 2022 78   Marquette W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 13, 2022 52   @ St. John's W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 16, 2022 41   Seton Hall W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 37   Xavier W 72-67 64%    
  Feb 22, 2022 6   Villanova L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 27, 2022 86   @ Georgetown W 72-68 61%    
  Mar 02, 2022 48   @ Creighton W 70-69 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 112   DePaul W 75-63 82%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.2 4.6 3.7 2.2 0.8 19.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.3 5.0 3.3 1.3 0.2 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.6 3.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.3 2.7 0.6 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.1 5.6 6.7 8.1 9.2 9.6 10.0 9.5 9.1 7.7 5.9 4.0 2.2 0.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
18-2 94.3% 3.7    3.3 0.5 0.0
17-3 78.1% 4.6    3.5 1.1 0.0
16-4 53.8% 4.2    2.4 1.5 0.3
15-5 28.0% 2.5    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0
14-6 9.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 13.3 4.7 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 100.0% 69.8% 30.2% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.2% 100.0% 59.9% 40.1% 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.0% 100.0% 48.1% 51.9% 2.2 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.9% 99.9% 37.3% 62.6% 3.1 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 7.7% 99.7% 30.8% 68.9% 4.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 9.1% 98.3% 23.0% 75.3% 5.6 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.8%
14-6 9.5% 94.3% 18.2% 76.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 93.0%
13-7 10.0% 82.7% 12.0% 70.7% 8.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 80.4%
12-8 9.6% 66.0% 8.3% 57.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 3.3 63.0%
11-9 9.2% 44.1% 6.4% 37.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.1 40.3%
10-10 8.1% 25.9% 5.0% 20.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 6.0 21.9%
9-11 6.7% 8.8% 2.4% 6.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.6%
8-12 5.6% 3.0% 1.4% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 1.6%
7-13 4.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.1%
6-14 3.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.1%
5-15 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 59.9% 15.4% 44.5% 6.2 4.0 5.1 5.9 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.1 4.9 4.5 4.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.1 52.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 82.9 16.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 76.9 19.0 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 66.2 33.8