Preseason Rankings
Creighton
Big East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#48
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.3#142
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#58
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 3.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 9.7% 9.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 17.1% 17.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.7% 40.7% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.6% 35.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 n/a
.500 or above 72.0% 72.1% 9.0%
.500 or above in Conference 57.2% 57.3% 6.0%
Conference Champion 9.0% 9.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 7.6% 53.8%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 0.0%
First Round38.9% 39.0% 0.0%
Second Round23.8% 23.8% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen10.7% 10.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight4.8% 4.8% 0.0%
Final Four2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 25 - 48 - 11
Quad 35 - 113 - 12
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-53 99.9%   
  Nov 11, 2021 311   Kennesaw St. W 83-62 97%    
  Nov 16, 2021 75   @ Nebraska L 76-77 49%    
  Nov 19, 2021 237   Brown W 77-63 89%    
  Nov 27, 2021 328   SIU Edwardsville W 83-60 97%    
  Nov 30, 2021 130   North Dakota St. W 74-64 81%    
  Dec 04, 2021 127   Iowa St. W 79-69 80%    
  Dec 11, 2021 38   BYU L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 14, 2021 61   Arizona St. W 81-77 63%    
  Dec 17, 2021 6   Villanova L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 20, 2021 112   @ DePaul W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 28, 2021 86   Georgetown W 78-71 70%    
  Jan 01, 2022 78   @ Marquette L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 05, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 65-74 23%    
  Jan 11, 2022 65   Providence W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 15, 2022 37   @ Xavier L 71-76 36%    
  Jan 19, 2022 52   St. John's W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 22, 2022 112   DePaul W 78-69 76%    
  Jan 26, 2022 64   @ Butler L 67-69 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 37   Xavier W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 01, 2022 25   @ Connecticut L 66-72 32%    
  Feb 04, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 08, 2022 64   Butler W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 12, 2022 86   @ Georgetown W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 20, 2022 78   Marquette W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 23, 2022 52   @ St. John's L 78-81 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 65   @ Providence L 69-71 45%    
  Mar 02, 2022 25   Connecticut L 69-70 50%    
  Mar 05, 2022 41   Seton Hall W 72-70 56%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.9 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 3.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 2.9 0.9 0.1 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.3 4.7 5.9 7.3 8.3 9.2 9.6 9.4 8.8 8.0 6.8 5.5 3.9 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 94.5% 1.5    1.3 0.1
17-3 80.7% 2.2    1.6 0.5 0.0
16-4 55.2% 2.2    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.4% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 64.4% 35.6% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 2.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.8% 99.9% 33.4% 66.5% 3.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 3.9% 99.5% 27.6% 71.9% 4.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-5 5.5% 97.8% 20.4% 77.4% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.2%
14-6 6.8% 93.6% 15.3% 78.3% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 92.5%
13-7 8.0% 83.6% 10.7% 72.9% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 81.7%
12-8 8.8% 67.0% 8.0% 58.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.9 64.1%
11-9 9.4% 44.2% 5.3% 38.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.3 41.1%
10-10 9.6% 23.5% 3.5% 20.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.4 20.8%
9-11 9.2% 7.0% 1.3% 5.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.6 5.7%
8-12 8.3% 2.1% 0.7% 1.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 1.4%
7-13 7.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.1%
6-14 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.9
5-15 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 40.7% 7.9% 32.8% 7.1 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.6 4.1 4.0 4.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.3 35.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 83.6 8.2 8.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.3 2.4 81.0 16.7