Preseason Rankings
Florida
Southeastern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#33
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#183
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.1% 4.2% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 9.1% 9.5% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 20.1% 21.0% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 31.4% 32.6% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.8% 61.6% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.8% 57.6% 20.1%
Average Seed 6.3 6.3 8.1
.500 or above 83.2% 84.9% 48.0%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 72.4% 40.6%
Conference Champion 12.5% 13.0% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.5% 10.6%
First Four4.0% 4.1% 3.1%
First Round57.7% 59.4% 20.5%
Second Round37.9% 39.3% 10.5%
Sweet Sixteen18.8% 19.6% 3.6%
Elite Eight9.2% 9.6% 1.2%
Final Four4.4% 4.6% 0.5%
Championship Game2.0% 2.0% 0.2%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 36 - 115 - 11
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 217   Elon W 79-61 95%    
  Nov 14, 2021 18   Florida St. W 74-73 55%    
  Nov 18, 2021 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 83-66 93%    
  Nov 22, 2021 113   California W 72-64 76%    
  Nov 28, 2021 243   Troy W 81-61 95%    
  Dec 01, 2021 40   @ Oklahoma L 70-72 43%    
  Dec 06, 2021 211   Texas Southern W 85-67 92%    
  Dec 08, 2021 280   North Florida W 84-63 96%    
  Dec 12, 2021 16   Maryland L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 18, 2021 177   South Florida W 75-63 84%    
  Dec 22, 2021 188   Stony Brook W 77-61 91%    
  Dec 29, 2021 66   @ Mississippi W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 05, 2022 15   Alabama W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 08, 2022 26   @ Auburn L 75-79 39%    
  Jan 12, 2022 36   LSU W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 15, 2022 104   @ South Carolina W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 19, 2022 56   Mississippi St. W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 92   Vanderbilt W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 26, 2022 23   @ Tennessee L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 02, 2022 84   @ Missouri W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 66   Mississippi W 71-64 70%    
  Feb 09, 2022 133   Georgia W 85-72 84%    
  Feb 12, 2022 14   @ Kentucky L 70-76 33%    
  Feb 15, 2022 94   @ Texas A&M W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 19, 2022 26   Auburn W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 22, 2022 17   Arkansas W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 26, 2022 133   @ Georgia W 82-75 70%    
  Mar 01, 2022 92   @ Vanderbilt W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 05, 2022 14   Kentucky W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.7 3.3 1.9 0.7 12.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.9 1.3 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.1 1.3 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 4.1 1.6 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.9 1.9 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.4 6.8 8.3 9.6 10.4 10.8 10.4 9.5 7.8 6.1 3.8 1.9 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 98.2% 1.9    1.7 0.1 0.0
16-2 87.3% 3.3    2.5 0.8 0.0
15-3 60.1% 3.7    1.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 28.4% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 7.7 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 52.4% 47.7% 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 100.0% 43.4% 56.6% 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.8% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 2.2 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.1% 99.8% 24.4% 75.4% 3.2 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-4 7.8% 99.5% 19.9% 79.6% 4.3 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-5 9.5% 97.5% 13.8% 83.7% 5.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.1%
12-6 10.4% 92.3% 9.6% 82.7% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 91.5%
11-7 10.8% 80.8% 5.4% 75.4% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 79.7%
10-8 10.4% 62.9% 2.9% 60.0% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.9 61.8%
9-9 9.6% 38.5% 1.9% 36.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 5.9 37.2%
8-10 8.3% 15.8% 0.9% 15.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.0 15.1%
7-11 6.8% 5.4% 0.5% 4.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 4.9%
6-12 5.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.8%
5-13 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.2%
4-14 2.3% 2.3
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 59.8% 9.0% 50.7% 6.3 4.1 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.3 4.5 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.2 55.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.2 12.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.2 15.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.0 12.0