Preseason Rankings
Furman
Southern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#109
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#193
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#118
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 3.4% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 6.1% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 43.6% 22.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.1% 11.1% 1.9%
Average Seed 12.0 10.5 12.5
.500 or above 81.9% 96.6% 79.2%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 95.8% 83.5%
Conference Champion 30.2% 47.4% 27.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.2% 1.5%
First Four1.4% 2.5% 1.2%
First Round25.1% 42.4% 21.9%
Second Round6.7% 15.8% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 5.8% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.7% 2.1% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 15.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 22 - 5
Quad 36 - 47 - 9
Quad 413 - 221 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 27   @ Louisville L 64-75 16%    
  Nov 15, 2021 81   @ Belmont L 74-79 32%    
  Nov 19, 2021 264   Radford W 73-60 87%    
  Nov 21, 2021 184   Navy W 74-66 76%    
  Nov 27, 2021 343   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-65 89%    
  Nov 30, 2021 299   @ High Point W 74-65 78%    
  Dec 03, 2021 235   College of Charleston W 74-63 82%    
  Dec 07, 2021 143   @ Winthrop L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 10, 2021 182   Appalachian St. W 71-63 75%    
  Dec 14, 2021 22   @ North Carolina L 71-83 17%    
  Dec 17, 2021 56   @ Mississippi St. L 66-74 27%    
  Dec 21, 2021 319   Presbyterian W 76-60 91%    
  Dec 29, 2021 255   Samford W 85-72 85%    
  Jan 01, 2022 218   @ VMI W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 05, 2022 149   @ UNC Greensboro W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 155   Mercer W 76-69 71%    
  Jan 12, 2022 141   East Tennessee St. W 72-66 67%    
  Jan 15, 2022 135   @ Chattanooga L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 19, 2022 309   Western Carolina W 84-68 89%    
  Jan 22, 2022 139   @ Wofford L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 26, 2022 218   VMI W 81-71 79%    
  Jan 29, 2022 155   @ Mercer W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 02, 2022 272   The Citadel W 87-74 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 149   UNC Greensboro W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 09, 2022 141   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 12, 2022 135   Chattanooga W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 16, 2022 309   @ Western Carolina W 81-71 78%    
  Feb 19, 2022 139   Wofford W 73-67 67%    
  Feb 23, 2022 255   @ Samford W 82-75 70%    
  Feb 26, 2022 272   @ The Citadel W 84-77 72%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.1 7.8 7.4 5.1 2.1 30.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.7 6.2 5.7 2.5 0.5 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.0 5.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.3 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.7 5.2 7.0 8.5 10.1 11.2 11.6 11.5 10.4 7.9 5.1 2.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 100.0% 5.1    4.9 0.2
16-2 93.5% 7.4    6.4 1.0 0.0
15-3 75.7% 7.8    5.4 2.3 0.2
14-4 44.6% 5.1    2.5 2.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 18.5% 2.2    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.2% 30.2 22.0 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 86.0% 69.8% 16.2% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 53.6%
17-1 5.1% 74.1% 60.2% 13.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.3 34.8%
16-2 7.9% 58.8% 50.4% 8.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 16.9%
15-3 10.4% 43.6% 39.3% 4.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.8 7.0%
14-4 11.5% 33.1% 31.6% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.7 2.1%
13-5 11.6% 23.4% 23.0% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 8.9 0.5%
12-6 11.2% 16.3% 16.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 9.3
11-7 10.1% 11.7% 11.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 9.0
10-8 8.5% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 7.8 0.0%
9-9 7.0% 6.3% 6.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.6
8-10 5.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
7-11 3.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.7
6-12 2.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.7% 23.4% 2.4% 12.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 2.4 5.4 6.1 4.1 2.0 0.8 74.3 3.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 26.4 31.5 26.4 10.6 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.7 51.9 22.2 25.9