Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.2#1
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.9#9
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+14.0#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.8% 7.8% 1.9%
#1 Seed 30.0% 30.0% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 50.5% 50.6% 6.9%
Top 4 Seed 70.4% 70.5% 20.4%
Top 6 Seed 80.9% 81.0% 31.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.3% 95.4% 60.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.4% 87.5% 46.5%
Average Seed 3.4 3.4 6.2
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 93.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.5% 87.9%
Conference Champion 75.7% 75.7% 41.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.7%
First Round94.8% 94.9% 58.9%
Second Round83.8% 83.9% 46.1%
Sweet Sixteen62.2% 62.3% 22.1%
Elite Eight43.7% 43.7% 12.1%
Final Four29.1% 29.1% 6.9%
Championship Game19.1% 19.1% 1.7%
National Champion12.3% 12.3% 1.7%

Next Game: Dixie St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 3
Quad 26 - 111 - 4
Quad 38 - 019 - 4
Quad 410 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 303   Dixie St. W 104-72 99.9%   
  Nov 13, 2021 7   Texas W 86-78 76%    
  Nov 15, 2021 347   Alcorn St. W 102-63 100.0%   
  Nov 19, 2021 165   Bellarmine W 91-67 98%    
  Nov 22, 2021 279   Central Michigan W 102-75 99%    
  Nov 23, 2021 3   UCLA W 79-75 62%    
  Nov 25, 2021 10   Duke W 85-80 67%    
  Nov 29, 2021 185   Tarleton St. W 88-63 98%    
  Dec 03, 2021 15   Alabama W 92-86 70%    
  Dec 09, 2021 234   Merrimack W 89-61 99%    
  Dec 12, 2021 95   Washington W 94-75 93%    
  Dec 18, 2021 21   Texas Tech W 80-72 73%    
  Dec 20, 2021 324   Northern Arizona W 93-59 99.7%   
  Dec 28, 2021 318   North Alabama W 100-67 99.6%   
  Dec 30, 2021 170   @ San Diego W 92-74 93%    
  Jan 01, 2022 82   @ Loyola Marymount W 85-74 82%    
  Jan 06, 2022 67   San Francisco W 89-73 90%    
  Jan 08, 2022 147   Pepperdine W 98-75 96%    
  Jan 13, 2022 38   BYU W 89-76 85%    
  Jan 15, 2022 124   @ Santa Clara W 92-77 88%    
  Jan 20, 2022 137   @ Pacific W 87-71 90%    
  Jan 27, 2022 82   Loyola Marymount W 88-71 91%    
  Jan 29, 2022 307   Portland W 103-71 99%    
  Feb 03, 2022 147   @ Pepperdine W 95-78 90%    
  Feb 05, 2022 38   @ BYU W 86-79 71%    
  Feb 10, 2022 137   Pacific W 90-68 96%    
  Feb 12, 2022 49   St. Mary's W 81-67 86%    
  Feb 19, 2022 124   Santa Clara W 95-74 95%    
  Feb 24, 2022 67   @ San Francisco W 86-76 78%    
  Feb 26, 2022 49   @ St. Mary's W 78-70 74%    
Projected Record 26 - 4 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 7.5 17.1 25.4 23.7 75.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 5.5 2.5 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.2 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.7 8.3 13.2 19.6 25.4 23.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 23.7    23.7
15-1 100.0% 25.4    23.8 1.6
14-2 87.1% 17.1    12.8 4.2 0.1
13-3 56.7% 7.5    3.8 3.1 0.6 0.0
12-4 21.8% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1
11-5 4.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 75.7% 75.7 64.5 9.8 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 23.7% 100.0% 83.6% 16.4% 1.4 16.0 6.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 25.4% 99.9% 74.1% 25.9% 2.1 10.6 8.1 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-2 19.6% 99.4% 62.3% 37.1% 3.3 3.0 5.0 4.1 3.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.4%
13-3 13.2% 98.0% 49.2% 48.7% 5.1 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.0%
12-4 8.3% 92.6% 40.4% 52.3% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 87.6%
11-5 4.7% 79.6% 28.7% 50.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 71.3%
10-6 2.6% 62.3% 21.8% 40.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 51.7%
9-7 1.4% 46.2% 14.3% 31.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 37.3%
8-8 0.7% 24.8% 8.9% 15.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 17.4%
7-9 0.3% 9.0% 6.6% 2.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6%
6-10 0.1% 6.8% 5.2% 1.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7%
5-11 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 95.3% 62.9% 32.5% 3.4 30.0 20.6 11.3 8.6 6.0 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 87.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.3% 100.0% 1.2 80.3 18.9 0.8 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.3 73.7 24.1 1.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 79.6 19.7 0.7