IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Hawaii
Big West
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.0	#202
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.4	#274
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.2	#218

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.7	#197

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.1%	9.5%	3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.9	13.7	14.7

.500 or above	50.7%	63.6%	30.6%
.500 or above in Conference	57.7%	67.1%	43.2%
Conference Champion	7.2%	9.8%	3.2%
Last Place in Conference	6.3%	3.5%	10.7%

First Four	0.8%	0.8%	0.6%
First Round	6.7%	9.1%	3.1%
Second Round	0.8%	1.2%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 9
Quad 4	9 - 4	13 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	201	Northern Colorado	W	72-69	61%
Nov 14, 2021	137	Pacific	L	67-68	46%
Nov 25, 2021	253	Illinois-Chicago	W	70-67	62%
Nov 30, 2021	124	@ Santa Clara	L	68-76	25%
Dec 23, 2021	92	Vanderbilt	L	67-75	26%
Dec 31, 2021	208	UC Davis	W	72-69	61%
Jan 02, 2022	148	UC Riverside	L	66-67	49%
Jan 06, 2022	231	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	74-75	46%
Jan 08, 2022	271	@ Long Beach St.	W	75-74	53%
Jan 14, 2022	111	UC Irvine	L	66-69	40%
Jan 16, 2022	263	UC San Diego	W	75-68	70%
Jan 20, 2022	203	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	63-66	41%
Jan 22, 2022	305	@ Cal Poly	W	69-66	59%
Jan 28, 2022	296	Cal St. Northridge	W	78-70	75%
Jan 30, 2022	97	UC Santa Barbara	L	66-70	37%
Feb 03, 2022	148	@ UC Riverside	L	64-70	31%
Feb 05, 2022	208	@ UC Davis	L	69-72	42%
Feb 11, 2022	271	Long Beach St.	W	78-71	71%
Feb 13, 2022	231	Cal St. Fullerton	W	77-72	65%
Feb 17, 2022	263	@ UC San Diego	W	72-71	52%
Feb 19, 2022	111	@ UC Irvine	L	63-72	23%
Feb 25, 2022	305	Cal Poly	W	72-63	76%
Feb 27, 2022	203	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	66-63	59%
Mar 04, 2022	97	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	63-73	21%
Mar 05, 2022	296	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	75-73	57%
Projected Record						12 - 13	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.7	1.9	1.2	0.7	0.2		7.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.3	2.4	2.9	2.0	0.7	0.1				9.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.5	2.2	3.8	3.1	1.4	0.3	0.0					11.4	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	1.0	3.0	4.3	2.8	0.8	0.1	0.0						12.1	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.2	3.5	4.3	2.1	0.4	0.0								11.7	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.5	3.9	3.9	1.6	0.2	0.0									11.3	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.7	3.6	3.3	1.2	0.1	0.0										10.1	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.8	3.6	2.7	0.8	0.1												9.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.5	1.9	2.8	1.8	0.5	0.0													7.5	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.7	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.0														5.7	10th
11th	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0															3.9	11th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.9	3.2	4.4	5.9	7.5	8.4	9.3	9.7	9.6	9.1	8.4	6.7	5.4	4.0	2.6	1.4	0.7	0.2			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	100.0%	0.7		0.6	0.0
18-2	90.7%	1.2		1.0	0.2	0.0
17-3	73.2%	1.9		1.3	0.5	0.0
16-4	42.6%	1.7		0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
15-5	19.9%	1.1		0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
14-6	5.7%	0.4		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.8%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0				0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	7.2%	7.2		4.5	2.1	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		75.7%	61.0%	14.7%	8.3			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		37.7%
19-1	0.7%		61.8%	51.9%	10.0%	11.2						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.3		20.7%
18-2	1.4%		43.4%	39.3%	4.1%	12.4						0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.8		6.7%
17-3	2.6%		34.8%	33.6%	1.2%	13.2											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.7		1.8%
16-4	4.0%		25.6%	25.5%	0.1%	13.6												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	3.0		0.1%
15-5	5.4%		18.1%	18.1%		14.0													0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	4.4
14-6	6.7%		12.2%	12.2%	0.0%	14.5													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	5.9		0.0%
13-7	8.4%		8.6%	8.6%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	7.6
12-8	9.1%		6.0%	6.0%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	8.5
11-9	9.6%		4.1%	4.1%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	9.2
10-10	9.7%		2.7%	2.7%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	9.5
9-11	9.3%		1.9%	1.9%		15.9																0.0	0.2	9.2
8-12	8.4%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	8.3
7-13	7.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	7.4
6-14	5.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	5.9
5-15	4.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.4
4-16	3.2%																							3.2
3-17	1.9%																							1.9
2-18	1.1%																							1.1
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.1%	6.9%	0.2%	13.9			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.7	1.4	1.8	1.7	1.2	92.9		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.0		6.1	23.5	23.5	23.5	6.1		6.1		5.2	6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	33.3%	7.9							4.8	28.6
Lose Out	0.1%