Preseason Rankings
Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#192
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#168
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#243
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 1.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 29.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 4.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.9 12.1 14.1
.500 or above 43.3% 83.6% 41.9%
.500 or above in Conference 62.0% 88.5% 61.1%
Conference Champion 13.1% 36.5% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 0.7% 7.4%
First Four1.4% 2.0% 1.3%
First Round10.6% 28.7% 9.9%
Second Round1.2% 6.5% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 3.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 410 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 13   @ Houston L 59-78 3%    
  Nov 13, 2021 162   @ Duquesne L 70-75 34%    
  Nov 16, 2021 146   @ Iona L 70-76 31%    
  Nov 19, 2021 16   @ Maryland L 60-78 6%    
  Nov 22, 2021 57   @ Richmond L 67-81 13%    
  Nov 27, 2021 212   Detroit Mercy W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 01, 2021 168   Princeton W 75-73 55%    
  Dec 04, 2021 294   Bucknell W 82-73 77%    
  Dec 08, 2021 188   @ Stony Brook L 69-72 39%    
  Dec 18, 2021 17   @ Arkansas L 70-88 7%    
  Dec 22, 2021 216   @ Monmouth L 79-80 45%    
  Dec 29, 2021 295   @ William & Mary W 74-71 59%    
  Dec 31, 2021 217   @ Elon L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 03, 2022 266   UNC Wilmington W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 05, 2022 235   College of Charleston W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 09, 2022 172   @ James Madison L 77-81 37%    
  Jan 11, 2022 239   @ Towson L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 181   Delaware W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 17, 2022 175   Drexel W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 134   @ Northeastern L 68-75 30%    
  Jan 27, 2022 235   @ College of Charleston L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 266   @ UNC Wilmington W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 239   Towson W 75-69 68%    
  Feb 05, 2022 172   James Madison W 80-78 55%    
  Feb 10, 2022 175   @ Drexel L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 181   @ Delaware L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 19, 2022 134   Northeastern L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 24, 2022 217   Elon W 74-69 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 295   William & Mary W 77-68 76%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.1 3.4 2.5 1.3 0.4 13.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.2 2.8 1.0 0.1 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.8 3.7 1.1 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.5 6.8 8.4 9.4 10.1 10.3 9.8 9.2 7.6 6.2 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.0
16-2 94.8% 2.5    2.2 0.3
15-3 76.8% 3.4    2.5 0.9 0.1
14-4 49.8% 3.1    1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 23.3% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 8.6 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 72.3% 64.0% 8.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.0%
17-1 1.3% 58.5% 53.5% 5.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 10.8%
16-2 2.6% 45.5% 42.4% 3.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.4 5.3%
15-3 4.5% 37.5% 36.4% 1.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.7%
14-4 6.2% 27.4% 27.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 4.5 0.2%
13-5 7.6% 20.0% 19.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 6.1 0.0%
12-6 9.2% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 7.8 0.0%
11-7 9.8% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 8.9
10-8 10.3% 7.0% 7.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 9.5
9-9 10.1% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.5
8-10 9.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.2
7-11 8.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-12 6.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.7
5-13 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.4
4-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.2% 10.9% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.0 88.8 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%