Preseason Rankings
Idaho St.
Big Sky
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#236
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.2#331
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#258
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#216
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 9.8% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.0 14.9
.500 or above 36.3% 62.9% 29.0%
.500 or above in Conference 50.7% 70.2% 45.3%
Conference Champion 5.5% 11.5% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 2.2% 8.0%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
First Round4.8% 9.4% 3.6%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 49 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 147   @ Pepperdine L 67-75 22%    
  Nov 14, 2021 179   @ Seattle L 66-72 28%    
  Nov 19, 2021 75   @ Nebraska L 64-78 11%    
  Nov 22, 2021 233   UMKC W 62-59 60%    
  Nov 27, 2021 306   @ Air Force W 63-62 53%    
  Dec 02, 2021 220   Portland St. W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 04, 2021 324   Northern Arizona W 68-59 77%    
  Dec 08, 2021 113   @ California L 58-69 19%    
  Dec 22, 2021 97   @ UC Santa Barbara L 60-72 16%    
  Dec 30, 2021 161   @ Montana L 61-68 28%    
  Jan 01, 2022 204   @ Montana St. L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 08, 2022 129   Weber St. L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 13, 2022 219   Eastern Washington W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 341   Idaho W 72-60 83%    
  Jan 20, 2022 129   @ Weber St. L 68-77 23%    
  Jan 22, 2022 122   @ Southern Utah L 65-75 21%    
  Jan 27, 2022 287   @ Sacramento St. L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 201   @ Northern Colorado L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 03, 2022 204   Montana St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 161   Montana L 64-65 46%    
  Feb 10, 2022 341   @ Idaho W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 219   @ Eastern Washington L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 17, 2022 201   Northern Colorado W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 287   Sacramento St. W 67-61 68%    
  Feb 24, 2022 324   @ Northern Arizona W 65-62 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 220   @ Portland St. L 67-71 38%    
  Mar 03, 2022 122   Southern Utah L 68-72 38%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.0 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.0 3.2 1.2 0.1 11.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 2.7 3.4 2.2 0.7 0.1 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.3 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.1 8.3 9.3 10.0 9.8 9.3 8.3 7.1 5.8 4.3 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 94.9% 1.0    0.9 0.1
17-3 76.5% 1.3    1.0 0.4 0.0
16-4 49.0% 1.4    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.9% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 66.7% 56.2% 10.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.9%
19-1 0.4% 53.0% 51.8% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5%
18-2 1.0% 42.7% 41.2% 1.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2.7%
17-3 1.8% 30.2% 30.0% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.4%
16-4 2.8% 23.7% 23.6% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2 0.1%
15-5 4.3% 19.3% 19.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.5
14-6 5.8% 11.7% 11.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 5.1
13-7 7.1% 8.3% 8.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 6.5
12-8 8.3% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.9
11-9 9.3% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.0
10-10 9.8% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.5
9-11 10.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.9
8-12 9.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.2
7-13 8.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.3
6-14 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.1
5-15 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-16 4.1% 4.1
3-17 2.7% 2.7
2-18 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%