IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Kent St.
Mid-American
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.5	#132
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.2	#100
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.9	#119

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.5	#163

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	0.6%	3.2%	0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.7%	24.9%	9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.8%	7.9%	0.9%
Average Seed	12.0	10.6	12.5

.500 or above	69.3%	92.1%	65.8%
.500 or above in Conference	72.8%	89.4%	70.2%
Conference Champion	11.1%	22.9%	9.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.6%	0.2%	1.8%

First Four	0.9%	2.6%	0.6%
First Round	11.2%	23.5%	9.3%
Second Round	2.9%	8.7%	2.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.9%	3.1%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 13.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 3	2 - 6
Quad 3	5 - 4	6 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 2	16 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	37	@ Xavier	L	69-81	13%
Nov 22, 2021	172	James Madison	W	81-79	58%
Dec 06, 2021	239	Towson	W	78-68	80%
Dec 09, 2021	212	Detroit Mercy	W	81-73	75%
Dec 12, 2021	32	@ West Virginia	L	69-82	15%
Dec 19, 2021	317	Southern	W	83-69	88%
Dec 21, 2021	151	Cleveland St.	W	75-70	65%
Dec 28, 2021	279	Central Michigan	W	87-75	83%
Jan 01, 2022	114	Toledo	W	78-76	55%
Jan 04, 2022	199	@ Ball St.	W	77-76	54%
Jan 08, 2022	91	@ Ohio	L	73-80	30%
Jan 11, 2022	314	Northern Illinois	W	78-64	87%
Jan 14, 2022	128	Akron	W	76-73	59%
Jan 18, 2022	300	@ Eastern Michigan	W	76-69	72%
Jan 22, 2022	83	@ Buffalo	L	77-84	28%
Jan 25, 2022	284	Western Michigan	W	78-66	83%
Jan 29, 2022	150	@ Bowling Green	L	77-79	44%
Feb 01, 2022	152	@ Miami (OH)	L	72-73	46%
Feb 05, 2022	300	Eastern Michigan	W	79-66	85%
Feb 08, 2022	150	Bowling Green	W	80-76	63%
Feb 12, 2022	128	@ Akron	L	73-76	40%
Feb 15, 2022	114	@ Toledo	L	75-79	36%
Feb 19, 2022	91	Ohio	L	76-77	48%
Feb 22, 2022	199	Ball St.	W	80-73	72%
Feb 26, 2022	279	@ Central Michigan	W	84-78	68%
Mar 01, 2022	314	@ Northern Illinois	W	75-67	73%
Mar 04, 2022	83	Buffalo	L	80-81	46%
Projected Record						16 - 11	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.2	1.0	2.4	3.1	2.5	1.4	0.4		11.1	1st
2nd													0.1	0.5	2.1	3.8	3.4	1.5	0.2	0.0			11.6	2nd
3rd												0.1	1.0	3.2	4.5	2.9	0.7	0.1					12.5	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.3	3.9	4.6	2.2	0.4	0.0						12.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.6	4.1	4.2	1.7	0.3	0.0							12.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	1.9	3.8	3.5	1.3	0.2									11.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.5	1.9	3.5	2.7	0.8	0.1										9.6	7th
8th						0.1	0.5	1.9	2.8	1.8	0.5	0.0											7.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.6	1.5	2.0	1.2	0.2	0.0												5.5	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0													3.3	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0															2.0	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0																0.8	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.4	2.2	3.4	4.9	6.4	7.7	8.8	9.9	10.5	10.2	9.4	8.2	6.6	4.6	2.7	1.4	0.4			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
19-1	99.5%	1.4		1.3	0.1
18-2	91.7%	2.5		2.1	0.4	0.0
17-3	66.4%	3.1		1.9	1.0	0.1	0.0
16-4	37.2%	2.4		1.0	1.1	0.3	0.0
15-5	12.8%	1.0		0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
14-6	2.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	11.1%	11.1		7.0	3.1	0.8	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.4%		95.8%	67.2%	28.6%	5.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		87.1%
19-1	1.4%		75.6%	49.2%	26.4%	8.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.3		52.0%
18-2	2.7%		60.0%	43.2%	16.8%	10.7				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.1		29.6%
17-3	4.6%		41.1%	32.3%	8.9%	11.7							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0		2.7		13.1%
16-4	6.6%		27.1%	24.7%	2.5%	12.5									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0		4.8		3.3%
15-5	8.2%		19.2%	18.5%	0.8%	13.0										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	6.6		0.9%
14-6	9.4%		11.6%	11.6%	0.0%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	8.3		0.0%
13-7	10.2%		8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	13.8													0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	9.3		0.0%
12-8	10.5%		6.0%	6.0%		14.1													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	9.9
11-9	9.9%		4.0%	4.0%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	9.5
10-10	8.8%		2.3%	2.3%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	8.6
9-11	7.7%		1.4%	1.4%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.6
8-12	6.4%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	6.4
7-13	4.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
6-14	3.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
5-15	2.2%																							2.2
4-16	1.4%																							1.4
3-17	0.7%																							0.7
2-18	0.3%																							0.3
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		11.7%	10.1%	1.6%	12.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	1.2	2.7	2.8	1.7	0.9	0.3	88.3		1.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.6	23.7	24.9	27.8	16.0	3.6	4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	2.8		61.9		33.3	4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	85.0%	3.0		35.0	15.0	35.0