Preseason Rankings
Kentucky
Southeastern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#14
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.9#187
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.3% 4.2% 0.8%
#1 Seed 9.4% 15.8% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 18.3% 29.2% 9.0%
Top 4 Seed 34.6% 50.3% 21.1%
Top 6 Seed 48.2% 65.3% 33.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.0% 87.7% 62.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.0% 84.3% 57.4%
Average Seed 5.3 4.5 6.2
.500 or above 91.2% 97.4% 85.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 89.2% 73.9%
Conference Champion 19.8% 27.4% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.4% 1.8%
First Four2.9% 2.0% 3.6%
First Round72.6% 86.8% 60.4%
Second Round53.4% 68.2% 40.8%
Sweet Sixteen30.9% 42.9% 20.6%
Elite Eight16.8% 24.4% 10.3%
Final Four8.9% 13.7% 4.8%
Championship Game4.7% 7.3% 2.5%
National Champion2.5% 4.0% 1.2%

Next Game: Duke (Neutral) - 46.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 9
Quad 35 - 116 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 10   Duke L 73-74 46%    
  Nov 12, 2021 282   Robert Morris W 86-62 99%    
  Nov 16, 2021 242   Mount St. Mary's W 76-54 97%    
  Nov 19, 2021 91   Ohio W 81-69 84%    
  Nov 22, 2021 244   Albany W 84-62 97%    
  Nov 26, 2021 280   North Florida W 86-62 98%    
  Nov 29, 2021 279   Central Michigan W 91-67 98%    
  Dec 07, 2021 317   Southern W 88-61 98%    
  Dec 11, 2021 45   @ Notre Dame W 74-73 55%    
  Dec 18, 2021 12   Ohio St. L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 22, 2021 27   Louisville W 73-68 66%    
  Dec 29, 2021 84   Missouri W 78-67 82%    
  Dec 31, 2021 299   High Point W 83-58 98%    
  Jan 04, 2022 36   @ LSU L 78-79 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 133   Georgia W 87-72 89%    
  Jan 11, 2022 92   @ Vanderbilt W 77-71 68%    
  Jan 15, 2022 23   Tennessee W 73-68 64%    
  Jan 19, 2022 94   @ Texas A&M W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 26   @ Auburn L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 25, 2022 56   Mississippi St. W 75-66 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 4   @ Kansas L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 02, 2022 92   Vanderbilt W 80-68 83%    
  Feb 05, 2022 15   @ Alabama L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 08, 2022 104   @ South Carolina W 82-75 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 33   Florida W 76-70 67%    
  Feb 15, 2022 23   @ Tennessee L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 15   Alabama W 81-78 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 36   LSU W 81-75 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 17   @ Arkansas L 77-79 44%    
  Mar 01, 2022 66   Mississippi W 72-63 76%    
  Mar 05, 2022 33   @ Florida L 73-74 49%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.4 5.5 3.4 1.3 19.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.2 5.1 2.7 0.7 0.0 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.4 1.4 0.1 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.1 1.3 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.8 1.5 0.2 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.7 0.2 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.3 5.0 6.4 8.3 9.7 10.6 11.7 11.3 10.3 8.3 6.2 3.4 1.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.0% 3.4    3.2 0.2
16-2 89.1% 5.5    4.4 1.1 0.1
15-3 64.9% 5.4    3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 31.0% 3.2    1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.3% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.8% 19.8 13.0 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 100.0% 62.3% 37.7% 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.4% 100.0% 52.1% 47.9% 1.4 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.2% 100.0% 43.2% 56.8% 1.8 2.9 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.3% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 2.6 1.9 2.7 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.3% 99.8% 26.0% 73.8% 3.6 0.8 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 11.3% 99.0% 18.8% 80.2% 4.9 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
12-6 11.7% 96.0% 12.8% 83.2% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 95.4%
11-7 10.6% 87.8% 8.4% 79.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 86.7%
10-8 9.7% 72.1% 5.0% 67.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.7 70.6%
9-9 8.3% 48.3% 3.1% 45.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 46.7%
8-10 6.4% 22.8% 1.2% 21.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.9 21.8%
7-11 5.0% 7.5% 0.9% 6.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 6.7%
6-12 3.3% 2.2% 0.6% 1.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.6%
5-13 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.4%
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 74.0% 16.1% 57.9% 5.3 9.4 8.9 8.4 7.9 7.2 6.4 6.2 5.8 4.7 3.8 3.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 26.0 69.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 90.5 9.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.7 17.3