IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.7	#93
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.0	#106
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.0	#116

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.7	#76

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%
Top 2 Seed	0.5%	2.4%	0.2%
Top 4 Seed	1.6%	7.0%	0.8%
Top 6 Seed	3.1%	12.6%	1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	22.0%	46.4%	18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	7.6%	24.8%	5.6%
Average Seed	10.3	8.7	10.8

.500 or above	79.2%	96.8%	76.6%
.500 or above in Conference	80.3%	95.0%	78.2%
Conference Champion	20.3%	37.2%	17.8%
Last Place in Conference	1.4%	0.1%	1.6%

First Four	2.4%	4.8%	2.0%
First Round	20.8%	43.9%	17.4%
Second Round	8.2%	21.8%	6.2%
Sweet Sixteen	3.0%	9.2%	2.1%
Elite Eight	1.0%	3.4%	0.7%
Final Four	0.4%	1.2%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
National Champion	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 12.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	1 - 3
Quad 2	2 - 3	3 - 6
Quad 3	7 - 4	9 - 9
Quad 4	9 - 1	18 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	15	@ Alabama	L	74-86	13%
Nov 12, 2021	262	Jackson St.	W	76-62	90%
Nov 19, 2021	338	@ Northwestern St.	W	84-69	90%
Nov 24, 2021	269	Louisiana Monroe	W	78-63	89%
Nov 27, 2021	59	@ North Carolina St.	L	69-75	30%
Dec 01, 2021	211	Texas Southern	W	82-71	82%
Dec 04, 2021	124	@ Santa Clara	L	75-76	49%
Dec 11, 2021	171	Louisiana	W	81-72	77%
Dec 18, 2021	36	LSU	L	75-81	31%
Dec 30, 2021	118	Marshall	W	81-76	66%
Jan 01, 2022	100	Western Kentucky	W	74-71	61%
Jan 06, 2022	163	@ UTEP	W	71-69	58%
Jan 08, 2022	207	@ Texas San Antonio	W	80-75	65%
Jan 13, 2022	195	Southern Miss	W	75-65	80%
Jan 16, 2022	195	@ Southern Miss	W	72-68	64%
Jan 22, 2022	74	UAB	W	71-70	54%
Jan 27, 2022	173	Rice	W	81-72	76%
Jan 29, 2022	123	North Texas	W	69-63	67%
Feb 03, 2022	159	@ Florida Atlantic	W	73-71	58%
Feb 05, 2022	273	@ Florida International	W	79-70	76%
Feb 10, 2022	178	@ Charlotte	W	67-64	60%
Feb 17, 2022	163	UTEP	W	74-66	75%
Feb 19, 2022	207	Texas San Antonio	W	83-72	80%
Feb 24, 2022	173	@ Rice	W	78-75	59%
Feb 26, 2022	123	@ North Texas	L	65-66	49%
Mar 02, 2022	131	Old Dominion	W	74-68	69%
Mar 05, 2022	74	@ UAB	L	68-73	36%
Projected Record						17 - 10	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.8	2.9	5.5	5.7	3.7	1.5		20.3	1st
2nd												0.1	1.2	3.8	5.2	3.1	0.9	0.1			14.3	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.2	4.0	4.7	2.0	0.3	0.0				12.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	3.5	4.1	1.6	0.2	0.0					10.2	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	2.9	3.8	1.3	0.1	0.0						8.7	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	2.0	3.6	1.5	0.1								7.4	6th
7th								0.1	1.4	3.1	1.6	0.2									6.3	7th
8th							0.0	0.8	2.7	1.8	0.3	0.0									5.6	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	1.8	1.7	0.3	0.0										4.3	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.2	1.6	0.5	0.0											3.6	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	0.8	1.2	0.5	0.0												2.8	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.5	0.1													2.2	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1														1.4	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.7	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.4	2.3	3.4	4.9	6.5	7.8	9.3	10.4	10.8	11.1	10.2	8.9	6.5	3.8	1.5			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.5		1.5
17-1	98.6%	3.7		3.4	0.3
16-2	86.8%	5.7		4.3	1.3	0.1	0.0
15-3	61.3%	5.5		3.0	2.0	0.4	0.0
14-4	28.8%	2.9		1.0	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	7.7%	0.8		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	20.3%	20.3		13.3	5.2	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.5%		96.0%	66.0%	29.9%	4.9		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		88.1%
17-1	3.8%		85.2%	50.9%	34.2%	7.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.6		69.8%
16-2	6.5%		68.5%	39.4%	29.1%	9.5			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.9	0.8	0.2	0.0			2.1		48.0%
15-3	8.9%		48.0%	32.1%	15.9%	10.8			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.0	1.3	0.5	0.0	0.0		4.7		23.4%
14-4	10.2%		32.5%	24.0%	8.5%	11.7				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0		6.9		11.2%
13-5	11.1%		20.0%	16.6%	3.5%	12.3									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	8.9		4.2%
12-6	10.8%		13.0%	12.2%	0.8%	12.8										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	9.4		0.9%
11-7	10.4%		7.8%	7.6%	0.2%	13.2											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	9.6		0.2%
10-8	9.3%		4.8%	4.8%	0.0%	13.6												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	8.8		0.0%
9-9	7.8%		2.5%	2.5%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.6
8-10	6.5%		1.7%	1.7%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.4
7-11	4.9%		0.9%	0.9%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	4.8
6-12	3.4%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	3.4
5-13	2.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	2.3
4-14	1.4%																							1.4
3-15	0.7%																							0.7
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		22.0%	15.6%	6.4%	10.3		0.1	0.3	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.8	1.0	1.0	1.5	2.0	3.3	5.4	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.1	78.0		7.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.1	29.5	38.5	24.2	6.2	1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	3.4	18.4	9.2	18.4	35.5	9.2	9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	3.6		35.0		35.0	30.0