Preseason Rankings
LSU
Southeastern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#36
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.0#74
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.0% 4.1% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 8.6% 8.8% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 18.9% 19.3% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 29.7% 30.3% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.9% 58.9% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.1% 55.1% 17.7%
Average Seed 6.4 6.3 8.8
.500 or above 80.8% 81.8% 41.3%
.500 or above in Conference 63.1% 63.9% 30.1%
Conference Champion 9.2% 9.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 3.3% 12.5%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 3.6%
First Round56.0% 56.9% 17.3%
Second Round36.3% 37.0% 8.2%
Sweet Sixteen17.7% 18.0% 2.5%
Elite Eight8.4% 8.6% 1.2%
Final Four3.9% 4.0% 0.2%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 97.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 36 - 115 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 269   Louisiana Monroe W 85-64 98%    
  Nov 12, 2021 174   Texas St. W 77-62 91%    
  Nov 15, 2021 110   Liberty W 76-66 82%    
  Nov 18, 2021 331   McNeese St. W 92-66 99%    
  Nov 22, 2021 81   Belmont W 86-78 75%    
  Nov 26, 2021 53   Penn St. W 80-78 58%    
  Dec 01, 2021 91   Ohio W 84-75 77%    
  Dec 11, 2021 60   Georgia Tech W 77-74 59%    
  Dec 14, 2021 338   Northwestern St. W 96-69 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 93   Louisiana Tech W 81-75 69%    
  Dec 22, 2021 226   Lipscomb W 85-67 93%    
  Dec 29, 2021 26   @ Auburn L 80-84 38%    
  Jan 04, 2022 14   Kentucky W 79-78 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 23   Tennessee W 76-74 55%    
  Jan 12, 2022 33   @ Florida L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 15, 2022 17   Arkansas W 83-82 53%    
  Jan 19, 2022 15   @ Alabama L 82-88 31%    
  Jan 22, 2022 23   @ Tennessee L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 26, 2022 94   Texas A&M W 78-69 76%    
  Jan 29, 2022 80   @ TCU W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 01, 2022 66   Mississippi W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 92   @ Vanderbilt W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 08, 2022 94   @ Texas A&M W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 56   Mississippi St. W 78-72 67%    
  Feb 16, 2022 133   Georgia W 90-78 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 104   @ South Carolina W 86-82 62%    
  Feb 23, 2022 14   @ Kentucky L 75-81 32%    
  Feb 26, 2022 84   Missouri W 81-73 74%    
  Mar 02, 2022 17   @ Arkansas L 80-85 34%    
  Mar 05, 2022 15   Alabama W 86-85 50%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 9.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.0 1.4 0.2 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.0 1.2 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.3 1.5 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.0 0.2 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.5 0.9 0.1 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.6 5.0 6.8 8.4 9.6 10.5 10.9 10.2 9.4 7.8 6.0 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.1
16-2 91.0% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 65.7% 2.8    1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 32.0% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.4% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 58.7% 41.3% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 46.4% 53.6% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 40.8% 59.2% 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.2% 100.0% 28.0% 71.9% 2.5 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 6.0% 99.8% 21.5% 78.3% 3.6 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 7.8% 99.1% 17.1% 82.0% 4.8 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-6 9.4% 96.9% 12.7% 84.2% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.5%
11-7 10.2% 91.1% 6.6% 84.5% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 90.5%
10-8 10.9% 76.3% 3.8% 72.5% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.6 75.4%
9-9 10.5% 55.3% 2.2% 53.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.1 4.7 54.3%
8-10 9.6% 27.1% 0.9% 26.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.0 26.4%
7-11 8.4% 8.0% 0.6% 7.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.7 7.4%
6-12 6.8% 2.1% 0.6% 1.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 1.5%
5-13 5.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.4%
4-14 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 57.9% 8.3% 49.7% 6.4 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.4 4.7 4.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 42.1 54.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 75.7 24.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 91.1 8.9