Preseason Rankings
Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#278
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#254
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#335
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#181
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 6.3% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 34.9% 46.6% 17.2%
.500 or above in Conference 39.1% 48.4% 25.1%
Conference Champion 4.8% 6.7% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 17.9% 12.1% 26.6%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 0.9%
First Round4.1% 5.6% 1.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 60.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 410 - 813 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 275   Fordham W 60-57 60%    
  Nov 15, 2021 131   @ Old Dominion L 60-72 15%    
  Nov 19, 2021 318   North Alabama W 71-68 59%    
  Nov 20, 2021 110   Liberty L 57-68 18%    
  Nov 30, 2021 323   Fairleigh Dickinson W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 03, 2021 227   @ Siena L 62-68 32%    
  Dec 05, 2021 261   Quinnipiac W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 11, 2021 88   @ Utah L 60-75 11%    
  Dec 20, 2021 335   Charleston Southern W 71-66 66%    
  Dec 21, 2021 272   @ The Citadel L 74-77 40%    
  Dec 31, 2021 260   @ Fairfield L 60-64 38%    
  Jan 02, 2022 250   Niagara W 66-64 55%    
  Jan 07, 2022 248   @ Rider L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 09, 2022 191   St. Peter's L 62-64 43%    
  Jan 14, 2022 146   @ Iona L 61-72 20%    
  Jan 16, 2022 265   Canisius W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 21, 2022 227   Siena W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 23, 2022 216   @ Monmouth L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 28, 2022 191   @ St. Peter's L 59-67 26%    
  Jan 30, 2022 246   Marist W 63-62 55%    
  Feb 04, 2022 250   @ Niagara L 63-67 37%    
  Feb 06, 2022 265   @ Canisius L 68-72 39%    
  Feb 11, 2022 216   Monmouth L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 13, 2022 261   @ Quinnipiac L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 20, 2022 248   Rider W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 25, 2022 246   @ Marist L 60-65 36%    
  Feb 27, 2022 260   Fairfield W 63-61 56%    
  Mar 03, 2022 146   Iona L 64-69 36%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 3.8 2.5 0.6 0.1 11.9 10th
11th 0.6 1.6 2.8 3.4 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 12.5 11th
Total 0.6 1.6 3.1 4.9 6.4 7.7 8.7 9.4 9.7 8.9 8.5 7.7 6.6 5.3 4.1 2.9 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 96.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0 0.0
17-3 81.6% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 63.6% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1
15-5 35.6% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.5% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 65.9% 65.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 59.4% 59.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.6% 44.6% 43.8% 0.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.4%
17-3 1.3% 32.5% 32.3% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.3%
16-4 1.9% 27.6% 27.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.3
15-5 2.9% 20.9% 20.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.3
14-6 4.1% 15.3% 15.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.5
13-7 5.3% 10.5% 10.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 4.7
12-8 6.6% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.1
11-9 7.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.4
10-10 8.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.3
9-11 8.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.7
8-12 9.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.6
7-13 9.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.4
6-14 8.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.6
5-15 7.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-16 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.4
3-17 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
2-18 3.1% 3.1
1-19 1.6% 1.6
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%