Preseason Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#24
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.8#156
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 3.7% 0.6%
#1 Seed 6.5% 12.9% 2.9%
Top 2 Seed 13.6% 25.5% 7.0%
Top 4 Seed 27.6% 46.0% 17.5%
Top 6 Seed 41.0% 62.0% 29.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.4% 82.1% 51.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.5% 79.8% 49.1%
Average Seed 5.4 4.6 6.2
.500 or above 75.2% 91.0% 66.4%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 78.3% 55.3%
Conference Champion 8.9% 14.9% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 1.4% 5.5%
First Four3.8% 2.8% 4.3%
First Round60.7% 80.9% 49.6%
Second Round43.7% 62.7% 33.2%
Sweet Sixteen24.1% 37.4% 16.8%
Elite Eight12.4% 20.9% 7.8%
Final Four6.2% 11.1% 3.4%
Championship Game3.0% 5.6% 1.5%
National Champion1.5% 2.9% 0.7%

Next Game: Kansas (Neutral) - 35.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 34 - 115 - 12
Quad 44 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 4   Kansas L 70-74 36%    
  Nov 12, 2021 284   Western Michigan W 81-58 98%    
  Nov 17, 2021 64   @ Butler W 68-66 56%    
  Nov 20, 2021 300   Eastern Michigan W 82-58 98%    
  Nov 24, 2021 46   Loyola Chicago W 67-64 60%    
  Dec 01, 2021 27   Louisville W 71-67 62%    
  Dec 04, 2021 114   Toledo W 81-69 85%    
  Dec 08, 2021 106   @ Minnesota W 76-70 68%    
  Dec 11, 2021 53   Penn St. W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 21, 2021 221   Oakland W 83-67 91%    
  Dec 29, 2021 299   High Point W 81-57 97%    
  Jan 02, 2022 58   @ Northwestern W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 05, 2022 75   Nebraska W 80-71 76%    
  Jan 08, 2022 2   @ Michigan L 66-74 26%    
  Jan 12, 2022 106   Minnesota W 79-67 82%    
  Jan 15, 2022 58   Northwestern W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 21, 2022 43   @ Wisconsin L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 25, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 72-78 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 2   Michigan L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 01, 2022 16   @ Maryland L 66-70 39%    
  Feb 05, 2022 50   @ Rutgers W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 08, 2022 43   Wisconsin W 69-63 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 30   Indiana W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 15, 2022 53   @ Penn St. W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 8   Illinois W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 22, 2022 39   @ Iowa L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 26, 2022 5   Purdue L 69-70 49%    
  Mar 03, 2022 12   @ Ohio St. L 69-74 35%    
  Mar 06, 2022 16   Maryland W 69-67 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.0 3.1 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.4 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.9 6.5 7.7 8.6 9.5 10.0 9.6 8.7 7.8 6.4 4.9 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.8% 0.9    0.8 0.0
18-2 91.9% 1.9    1.5 0.3 0.0
17-3 73.8% 2.5    1.5 0.8 0.1
16-4 41.7% 2.1    1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 16.7% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 5.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 54.7% 45.3% 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.4% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.9% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.2 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.4% 99.9% 17.4% 82.5% 3.0 0.7 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 7.8% 99.9% 12.4% 87.5% 4.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 8.7% 99.2% 9.5% 89.8% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
12-8 9.6% 95.7% 4.9% 90.8% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.5%
11-9 10.0% 86.1% 2.6% 83.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.4 85.7%
10-10 9.5% 65.4% 1.3% 64.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 64.9%
9-11 8.6% 34.4% 0.6% 33.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.6 34.0%
8-12 7.7% 12.1% 0.8% 11.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.8 11.4%
7-13 6.5% 2.3% 0.2% 2.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3 2.2%
6-14 4.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 0.2%
5-15 3.6% 3.6
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 62.4% 7.2% 55.3% 5.4 6.5 7.1 7.5 6.5 6.8 6.6 5.3 4.4 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 37.6 59.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.2 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0