Preseason Rankings
Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#56
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.3#299
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.5% 3.6% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 8.9% 9.1% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 15.6% 16.0% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.9% 40.7% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.2% 37.9% 8.0%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.5
.500 or above 68.2% 69.3% 24.2%
.500 or above in Conference 51.6% 52.4% 20.1%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.0% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 6.1% 23.6%
First Four4.1% 4.2% 0.9%
First Round37.8% 38.5% 8.1%
Second Round22.0% 22.4% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen9.4% 9.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight4.0% 4.1% 0.4%
Final Four1.7% 1.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 36 - 213 - 13
Quad 46 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 318   North Alabama W 82-61 98%    
  Nov 13, 2021 161   Montana W 73-61 86%    
  Nov 17, 2021 212   Detroit Mercy W 80-65 90%    
  Nov 21, 2021 158   Morehead St. W 72-60 84%    
  Nov 25, 2021 27   Louisville L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 02, 2021 308   Lamar W 79-59 95%    
  Dec 05, 2021 106   Minnesota W 75-67 73%    
  Dec 11, 2021 51   Colorado St. L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 14, 2021 121   Georgia St. W 78-69 77%    
  Dec 17, 2021 109   Furman W 74-66 73%    
  Dec 20, 2021 143   Winthrop W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 29, 2021 17   Arkansas L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 05, 2022 84   @ Missouri L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 08, 2022 66   @ Mississippi L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 12, 2022 133   Georgia W 80-70 78%    
  Jan 15, 2022 15   Alabama L 74-77 42%    
  Jan 19, 2022 33   @ Florida L 67-73 32%    
  Jan 22, 2022 66   Mississippi W 67-63 61%    
  Jan 25, 2022 14   @ Kentucky L 66-75 25%    
  Jan 29, 2022 21   @ Texas Tech L 62-69 28%    
  Feb 01, 2022 104   South Carolina W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 17   @ Arkansas L 70-78 27%    
  Feb 09, 2022 23   Tennessee L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 36   @ LSU L 72-78 33%    
  Feb 16, 2022 15   @ Alabama L 71-80 25%    
  Feb 19, 2022 84   Missouri W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 23, 2022 104   @ South Carolina W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 26, 2022 92   Vanderbilt W 74-68 69%    
  Mar 02, 2022 26   Auburn L 73-74 49%    
  Mar 05, 2022 94   @ Texas A&M W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 4.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.0 1.3 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.2 1.9 0.2 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.5 0.8 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.6 1.1 0.1 6.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.1 0.9 0.1 5.6 13th
14th 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 14th
Total 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.3 7.0 8.7 10.2 10.9 10.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 5.7 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.2% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 85.1% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 60.2% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.9% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 52.3% 47.7% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 44.8% 55.2% 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.3% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 99.9% 25.3% 74.6% 3.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 4.1% 99.5% 17.7% 81.9% 4.4 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-5 5.7% 97.6% 12.4% 85.1% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.2%
12-6 7.6% 91.9% 7.8% 84.1% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 91.2%
11-7 8.9% 79.4% 4.7% 74.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 78.4%
10-8 10.3% 60.0% 3.1% 57.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 58.8%
9-9 10.6% 35.4% 1.3% 34.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.8 34.6%
8-10 10.9% 13.4% 0.4% 13.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.4 13.0%
7-11 10.2% 3.6% 0.4% 3.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.8 3.3%
6-12 8.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 0.4%
5-13 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
4-14 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 5.3
3-15 3.5% 3.5
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 39.9% 4.4% 35.5% 7.3 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 60.1 37.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 30.0 70.0