Preseason Rankings
Montana
Big Sky
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#161
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#298
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#159
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 26.5% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.8 12.8 14.2
.500 or above 75.3% 94.2% 72.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 92.5% 75.4%
Conference Champion 17.7% 32.8% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.2% 1.9%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
First Round14.4% 26.0% 12.5%
Second Round2.1% 5.9% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 56   @ Mississippi St. L 61-73 14%    
  Nov 15, 2021 313   @ North Dakota W 72-66 70%    
  Nov 20, 2021 326   Nebraska Omaha W 79-66 88%    
  Nov 24, 2021 263   UC San Diego W 76-67 78%    
  Nov 25, 2021 266   UNC Wilmington W 77-68 78%    
  Nov 26, 2021 195   Southern Miss W 69-64 66%    
  Nov 29, 2021 19   @ Oregon L 62-78 9%    
  Dec 02, 2021 287   @ Sacramento St. W 68-64 63%    
  Dec 04, 2021 201   @ Northern Colorado L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 08, 2021 306   Air Force W 69-58 83%    
  Dec 19, 2021 124   @ Santa Clara L 68-74 32%    
  Dec 30, 2021 236   Idaho St. W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 01, 2022 129   Weber St. W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 06, 2022 219   @ Eastern Washington W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 08, 2022 204   @ Montana St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 13, 2022 122   Southern Utah W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 220   @ Portland St. W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 324   @ Northern Arizona W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 27, 2022 341   Idaho W 76-60 90%    
  Jan 29, 2022 219   Eastern Washington W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 03, 2022 129   @ Weber St. L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 05, 2022 236   @ Idaho St. W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 324   Northern Arizona W 72-59 85%    
  Feb 12, 2022 220   Portland St. W 74-67 69%    
  Feb 17, 2022 341   @ Idaho W 73-63 78%    
  Feb 24, 2022 122   @ Southern Utah L 69-75 33%    
  Feb 27, 2022 204   Montana St. W 72-67 66%    
  Mar 03, 2022 201   Northern Colorado W 72-67 66%    
  Mar 05, 2022 287   Sacramento St. W 71-61 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.7 4.5 3.9 2.2 0.8 17.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 5.2 3.7 1.5 0.2 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.5 4.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.7 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.8 5.1 6.7 8.0 9.2 10.0 10.2 10.1 9.4 7.9 6.0 4.1 2.2 0.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.1
18-2 94.2% 3.9    3.4 0.5
17-3 74.5% 4.5    3.1 1.3 0.1
16-4 47.1% 3.7    1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 20.8% 2.0    0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1
14-6 5.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 12.1 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 72.1% 62.4% 9.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 25.7%
19-1 2.2% 61.4% 56.5% 4.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 11.1%
18-2 4.1% 48.5% 46.8% 1.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 3.2%
17-3 6.0% 36.2% 35.9% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.8 0.4%
16-4 7.9% 29.6% 29.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 5.5
15-5 9.4% 21.3% 21.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 7.4
14-6 10.1% 15.9% 15.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 8.5
13-7 10.2% 11.4% 11.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 9.0
12-8 10.0% 7.7% 7.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 9.2
11-9 9.2% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.7
10-10 8.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.7
9-11 6.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.6
8-12 5.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.1
7-13 3.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.8
6-14 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
5-15 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.9% 14.6% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 3.8 3.5 2.2 85.1 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.5 11.7 20.4 14.6 27.2 13.6 12.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 6.3 25.9 22.2 51.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 8.0 32.5 15.0 17.5 35.0