Preseason Rankings
Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#242
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace57.8#356
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#297
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#192
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 38.0% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 13.6 15.2
.500 or above 50.4% 90.3% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 93.9% 67.7%
Conference Champion 15.7% 42.1% 15.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 0.4% 4.7%
First Four4.3% 1.3% 4.3%
First Round12.5% 37.3% 12.2%
Second Round0.6% 5.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 413 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 6   @ Villanova L 50-74 1%    
  Nov 13, 2021 193   @ Saint Joseph's L 65-71 29%    
  Nov 16, 2021 14   @ Kentucky L 54-76 3%    
  Nov 19, 2021 282   @ Robert Morris L 64-65 47%    
  Nov 22, 2021 91   @ Ohio L 59-73 13%    
  Nov 27, 2021 184   Navy L 61-62 48%    
  Nov 30, 2021 332   Howard W 75-65 79%    
  Dec 04, 2021 276   @ Loyola Maryland L 63-64 45%    
  Dec 07, 2021 124   @ Santa Clara L 60-71 19%    
  Dec 11, 2021 259   American W 64-60 62%    
  Dec 18, 2021 256   Morgan St. W 70-66 62%    
  Dec 22, 2021 229   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 64-62 57%    
  Dec 29, 2021 323   Fairleigh Dickinson W 73-65 75%    
  Dec 31, 2021 228   Wagner W 63-61 57%    
  Jan 06, 2022 254   @ LIU Brooklyn L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 320   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 70-68 55%    
  Jan 15, 2022 206   @ Bryant L 68-74 33%    
  Jan 17, 2022 234   @ Merrimack L 57-61 39%    
  Jan 21, 2022 288   Sacred Heart W 66-61 66%    
  Jan 23, 2022 346   Central Connecticut St. W 73-60 84%    
  Jan 27, 2022 323   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 283   St. Francis (PA) W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 03, 2022 234   Merrimack W 60-58 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 206   Bryant W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 10, 2022 228   @ Wagner L 60-64 38%    
  Feb 12, 2022 283   @ St. Francis (PA) L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 17, 2022 320   St. Francis Brooklyn W 73-65 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 254   LIU Brooklyn W 70-66 61%    
  Feb 24, 2022 288   @ Sacred Heart L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 26, 2022 346   @ Central Connecticut St. W 70-63 70%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.5 4.3 3.3 1.6 0.6 15.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.0 3.3 1.2 0.2 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.3 4.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 4.0 1.3 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 3.5 0.9 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.9 7.5 8.7 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.1 9.1 7.3 5.4 3.5 1.6 0.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
16-2 94.9% 3.3    2.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 78.3% 4.3    3.0 1.2 0.1
14-4 48.7% 3.5    1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 20.0% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.7% 15.7 10.5 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 67.4% 66.7% 0.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0%
17-1 1.6% 59.6% 59.5% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.3%
16-2 3.5% 49.7% 49.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.8
15-3 5.4% 41.3% 41.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.6 3.2
14-4 7.3% 31.6% 31.6% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 5.0
13-5 9.1% 26.8% 26.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 6.7
12-6 10.1% 20.7% 20.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 8.0
11-7 10.3% 13.9% 13.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 8.8
10-8 10.3% 6.9% 6.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 9.6
9-9 9.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 9.6
8-10 8.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.7
7-11 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.5
6-12 5.9% 5.9
5-13 4.1% 4.1
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.0 7.3 85.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%