Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#250
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#325
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#248
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#259
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 16.5% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 13.8 15.0
.500 or above 40.6% 79.5% 39.3%
.500 or above in Conference 47.8% 78.9% 46.7%
Conference Champion 7.0% 21.7% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 2.7% 13.2%
First Four1.2% 0.6% 1.2%
First Round5.7% 16.2% 5.3%
Second Round0.3% 2.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 3.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 412 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 60-79 3%    
  Nov 12, 2021 12   @ Ohio St. L 57-80 2%    
  Nov 19, 2021 328   SIU Edwardsville W 70-65 68%    
  Nov 20, 2021 353   St. Thomas W 76-62 89%    
  Nov 21, 2021 281   @ Youngstown St. L 69-70 45%    
  Nov 29, 2021 105   @ Colgate L 67-80 14%    
  Dec 03, 2021 216   Monmouth W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 05, 2021 260   Fairfield W 64-61 61%    
  Dec 08, 2021 300   @ Eastern Michigan L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 18, 2021 244   Albany L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 21, 2021 327   @ Binghamton W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 31, 2021 261   @ Quinnipiac L 69-72 42%    
  Jan 02, 2022 278   @ Manhattan L 64-66 45%    
  Jan 09, 2022 261   Quinnipiac W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 14, 2022 265   Canisius W 73-69 61%    
  Jan 16, 2022 146   @ Iona L 63-72 23%    
  Jan 21, 2022 191   St. Peter's L 63-64 48%    
  Jan 23, 2022 248   Rider W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 28, 2022 227   @ Siena L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 30, 2022 216   @ Monmouth L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 04, 2022 278   Manhattan W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 06, 2022 146   Iona L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 260   @ Fairfield L 61-64 42%    
  Feb 14, 2022 246   @ Marist L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 19, 2022 265   @ Canisius L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 25, 2022 248   @ Rider L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 27, 2022 191   @ St. Peter's L 60-67 30%    
  Mar 03, 2022 227   Siena W 67-65 55%    
  Mar 05, 2022 246   Marist W 65-62 59%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 7.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.5 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.5 1.0 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 3.6 1.2 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 3.5 1.0 0.1 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.4 2.7 0.9 0.1 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.1 9.4 10th
11th 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.7 11th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.5 4.8 6.2 7.4 8.4 9.2 9.4 9.1 8.6 7.8 6.5 5.2 4.2 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 95.7% 1.0    0.9 0.1 0.0
17-3 83.2% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 60.2% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1
15-5 34.5% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 13.1% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 4.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 73.7% 63.4% 10.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.2%
19-1 0.4% 51.0% 49.9% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2.2%
18-2 1.0% 45.4% 45.4% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.1%
17-3 1.8% 33.9% 33.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2
16-4 3.0% 28.3% 28.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.1
15-5 4.2% 20.0% 20.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.3
14-6 5.2% 15.0% 15.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 4.4
13-7 6.5% 11.0% 11.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 5.8
12-8 7.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 7.2
11-9 8.6% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.1
10-10 9.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.9
9-11 9.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
8-12 9.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.1
7-13 8.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.4
6-14 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.4
5-15 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
4-16 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-17 3.5% 3.5
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.4 93.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%