Preseason Rankings
North Texas
Conference USA
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#123
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.8#350
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 18.5% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 7.2% 1.4%
Average Seed 10.9 10.5 12.1
.500 or above 56.4% 73.1% 41.3%
.500 or above in Conference 64.8% 76.2% 54.6%
Conference Champion 9.2% 13.5% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.4% 4.9%
First Four1.6% 2.5% 0.9%
First Round11.4% 17.3% 6.0%
Second Round3.7% 6.3% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 2.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 47 - 215 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 83   Buffalo L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 18, 2021 224   Texas Arlington W 69-60 80%    
  Nov 25, 2021 4   Kansas L 59-73 11%    
  Dec 04, 2021 63   Nevada L 66-69 41%    
  Dec 11, 2021 119   Massachusetts L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 14, 2021 196   Sam Houston St. W 72-64 74%    
  Dec 18, 2021 54   @ Wichita St. L 59-68 23%    
  Dec 21, 2021 108   Tulsa L 61-62 45%    
  Jan 01, 2022 173   Rice W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 06, 2022 74   UAB L 63-64 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 267   Middle Tennessee W 72-60 83%    
  Jan 13, 2022 118   @ Marshall L 68-72 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 100   @ Western Kentucky L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 20, 2022 178   Charlotte W 63-56 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 131   Old Dominion W 65-61 61%    
  Jan 27, 2022 195   @ Southern Miss W 64-62 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 93   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-69 33%    
  Feb 03, 2022 163   UTEP W 66-60 67%    
  Feb 05, 2022 207   Texas San Antonio W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 12, 2022 173   @ Rice W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 17, 2022 159   @ Florida Atlantic L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 74   @ UAB L 60-67 28%    
  Feb 24, 2022 195   Southern Miss W 67-59 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 93   Louisiana Tech W 66-65 51%    
  Mar 03, 2022 207   @ Texas San Antonio W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 163   @ UTEP L 63-64 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.7 2.4 1.3 0.4 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.5 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.9 1.3 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.4 8.0 9.5 10.2 10.4 10.5 9.8 8.3 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.3 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.6% 1.3    1.2 0.1 0.0
16-2 87.3% 2.4    1.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 58.8% 2.7    1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 26.4% 1.7    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.4 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 95.5% 63.4% 32.2% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.8%
17-1 1.3% 85.6% 45.6% 39.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 73.4%
16-2 2.8% 69.5% 36.5% 33.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 52.0%
15-3 4.6% 50.4% 29.0% 21.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 30.1%
14-4 6.5% 32.3% 21.8% 10.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 13.4%
13-5 8.3% 19.5% 16.0% 3.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.7 4.2%
12-6 9.8% 13.0% 11.5% 1.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.5 1.8%
11-7 10.5% 7.1% 6.8% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.7 0.3%
10-8 10.4% 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.1 0.1%
9-9 10.2% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.0%
8-10 9.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4
7-11 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.9
6-12 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.4
5-13 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.2% 8.5% 3.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 87.8 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 42.3 28.9 28.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 30.0 70.0
Lose Out 0.0%