IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.9	#324
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	61.4	#341
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.9	#317

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.0	#310

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.8%	5.2%	0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	14.2	15.3

.500 or above	9.0%	43.6%	8.7%
.500 or above in Conference	15.7%	49.6%	15.4%
Conference Champion	0.7%	6.6%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	28.1%	7.4%	28.3%

First Four	0.3%	0.7%	0.3%
First Round	0.7%	4.7%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 8	1 - 13
Quad 4	7 - 9	9 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	31	@ Arizona	L	55-80	1%
Nov 11, 2021	95	@ Washington	L	61-79	5%
Nov 18, 2021	203	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	61-66	33%
Nov 20, 2021	310	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	66-70	35%
Nov 22, 2021	310	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	69-67	55%
Nov 24, 2021	231	Cal St. Fullerton	L	71-74	40%
Dec 02, 2021	129	@ Weber St.	L	65-80	10%
Dec 04, 2021	236	@ Idaho St.	L	59-68	23%
Dec 11, 2021	186	@ South Dakota	L	64-76	16%
Dec 18, 2021	170	San Diego	L	64-74	21%
Dec 20, 2021	1	@ Gonzaga	L	59-93	0.3%
Dec 30, 2021	341	Idaho	W	70-64	68%
Jan 01, 2022	219	Eastern Washington	L	70-74	38%
Jan 08, 2022	122	@ Southern Utah	L	63-79	10%
Jan 10, 2022	287	Sacramento St.	L	64-65	50%
Jan 15, 2022	201	@ Northern Colorado	L	63-74	19%
Jan 20, 2022	204	Montana St.	L	65-70	35%
Jan 22, 2022	161	Montana	L	62-69	28%
Jan 29, 2022	220	Portland St.	L	67-71	38%
Feb 03, 2022	287	@ Sacramento St.	L	62-68	31%
Feb 05, 2022	201	Northern Colorado	L	66-71	35%
Feb 10, 2022	161	@ Montana	L	59-72	15%
Feb 12, 2022	204	@ Montana St.	L	62-73	19%
Feb 17, 2022	220	@ Portland St.	L	64-74	22%
Feb 21, 2022	122	Southern Utah	L	66-76	22%
Feb 24, 2022	236	Idaho St.	L	62-65	41%
Feb 26, 2022	129	Weber St.	L	68-77	23%
Mar 03, 2022	219	@ Eastern Washington	L	67-77	22%
Mar 05, 2022	341	@ Idaho	L	66-67	50%
Projected Record						8 - 21	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				1.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0					2.1	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	1.2	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0							3.5	4th
5th									0.1	0.5	1.9	1.7	0.6	0.1									4.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.1	2.4	2.2	0.7	0.1										6.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	1.8	3.4	2.8	0.7	0.1	0.0										9.3	7th
8th					0.1	0.9	3.1	4.5	3.0	0.8	0.1												12.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.4	2.3	5.2	5.6	2.9	0.6	0.0													17.1	9th
10th		0.3	2.0	5.2	6.7	4.9	2.1	0.4	0.0	0.0													21.6	10th
11th	2.0	4.7	5.9	4.6	2.4	0.7	0.1	0.0															20.5	11th

Total	2.0	5.0	8.0	10.2	11.5	11.7	11.3	9.7	8.2	6.6	5.2	3.9	2.6	1.8	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	97.5%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	78.7%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-4	54.7%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
15-5	26.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	6.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.7%	0.7		0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		24.0%	24.0%		12.0													0.0					0.0
19-1	0.0%		55.4%	45.9%	9.5%	11.7										0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		17.5%
18-2	0.1%		29.1%	29.1%		13.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
17-3	0.1%		19.7%	19.7%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-4	0.3%		24.2%	24.2%		14.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
15-5	0.6%		15.3%	15.3%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
14-6	1.1%		9.8%	9.8%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
13-7	1.8%		7.1%	7.1%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.6
12-8	2.6%		3.3%	3.3%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	2.6
11-9	3.9%		2.3%	2.3%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	3.8
10-10	5.2%		1.3%	1.3%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	5.1
9-11	6.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	6.6
8-12	8.2%		0.5%	0.5%		15.9																0.0	0.0	8.2
7-13	9.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
6-14	11.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
5-15	11.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.7
4-16	11.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
3-17	10.2%																							10.2
2-18	8.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.0
1-19	5.0%																							5.0
0-20	2.0%																							2.0

Total	100%		0.8%	0.8%	0.0%	15.2										0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	99.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.0%