Preseason Rankings
Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#201
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#199
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#176
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#234
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 13.6% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.7 14.6
.500 or above 45.4% 67.1% 33.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.4% 78.7% 56.7%
Conference Champion 9.8% 16.1% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.3% 4.7%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round8.3% 13.2% 5.7%
Second Round0.8% 1.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Neutral) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 411 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 137   Pacific L 68-72 35%    
  Nov 12, 2021 202   @ Hawaii L 69-72 39%    
  Nov 17, 2021 7   @ Texas L 62-83 3%    
  Nov 21, 2021 215   @ California Baptist L 76-78 42%    
  Nov 23, 2021 322   @ San Jose St. W 80-75 65%    
  Nov 27, 2021 51   @ Colorado St. L 66-81 11%    
  Dec 02, 2021 204   Montana St. W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 04, 2021 161   Montana W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 07, 2021 186   South Dakota W 76-74 57%    
  Dec 15, 2021 31   @ Arizona L 64-81 8%    
  Dec 18, 2021 69   @ Washington St. L 64-77 14%    
  Jan 01, 2022 122   @ Southern Utah L 72-80 26%    
  Jan 08, 2022 287   Sacramento St. W 73-65 74%    
  Jan 10, 2022 220   @ Portland St. L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 324   Northern Arizona W 74-63 81%    
  Jan 20, 2022 341   @ Idaho W 75-67 73%    
  Jan 22, 2022 219   @ Eastern Washington L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 27, 2022 129   Weber St. L 77-78 46%    
  Jan 29, 2022 236   Idaho St. W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 03, 2022 220   Portland St. W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 324   @ Northern Arizona W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 10, 2022 287   @ Sacramento St. W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 14, 2022 122   Southern Utah L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 17, 2022 236   @ Idaho St. L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 19, 2022 129   @ Weber St. L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 24, 2022 219   Eastern Washington W 80-76 62%    
  Feb 26, 2022 341   Idaho W 78-64 86%    
  Mar 03, 2022 161   @ Montana L 67-72 34%    
  Mar 05, 2022 204   @ Montana St. L 71-74 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 3.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.2 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.6 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 4.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.7 6.5 7.7 8.7 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.2 7.8 6.9 5.0 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
18-2 93.6% 1.7    1.5 0.2 0.0
17-3 74.8% 2.5    1.8 0.7 0.0
16-4 48.1% 2.4    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.3% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
14-6 5.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 6.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 74.9% 64.8% 10.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.5%
19-1 0.9% 60.1% 52.9% 7.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 15.2%
18-2 1.9% 43.5% 41.0% 2.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1 4.3%
17-3 3.4% 34.2% 33.5% 0.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 1.0%
16-4 5.0% 25.0% 24.8% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.7 0.3%
15-5 6.9% 18.4% 18.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 5.6
14-6 7.8% 14.2% 14.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 6.7
13-7 9.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 8.3
12-8 9.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 9.2
11-9 9.7% 4.5% 4.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.3
10-10 9.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.1 0.2 9.4
9-11 8.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.5
8-12 7.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.7
7-13 6.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.5
6-14 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
5-15 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.7% 8.6% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.7 91.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%