Preseason Rankings
Penn
Ivy League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#187
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#173
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#200
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#184
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 1.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 34.5% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 12.7 14.3
.500 or above 46.9% 83.5% 45.2%
.500 or above in Conference 68.2% 90.4% 67.1%
Conference Champion 17.5% 36.3% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 1.4% 7.2%
First Four1.2% 0.7% 1.2%
First Round15.6% 33.9% 14.7%
Second Round1.7% 6.6% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 2.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 54 - 11
Quad 49 - 313 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 18   @ Florida St. L 64-82 5%    
  Nov 12, 2021 169   @ George Mason L 69-73 35%    
  Nov 14, 2021 294   @ Bucknell W 77-74 61%    
  Nov 16, 2021 292   Lafayette W 79-70 78%    
  Nov 18, 2021 72   Utah St. L 67-76 23%    
  Nov 23, 2021 239   @ Towson W 71-70 51%    
  Nov 28, 2021 17   @ Arkansas L 68-86 7%    
  Dec 01, 2021 6   Villanova L 62-76 12%    
  Dec 04, 2021 120   @ Temple L 67-74 27%    
  Dec 08, 2021 193   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-79 42%    
  Dec 11, 2021 210   @ La Salle L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 28, 2021 172   James Madison W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 02, 2022 237   Brown W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 04, 2022 332   Howard W 85-72 85%    
  Jan 07, 2022 290   Cornell W 77-68 76%    
  Jan 08, 2022 315   Columbia W 76-66 80%    
  Jan 15, 2022 270   Dartmouth W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 17, 2022 168   @ Princeton L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 22, 2022 126   Yale L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 28, 2022 160   @ Harvard L 69-74 36%    
  Feb 04, 2022 315   @ Columbia W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 290   @ Cornell W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 12, 2022 160   Harvard W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 18, 2022 126   @ Yale L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 19, 2022 237   @ Brown L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 26, 2022 270   @ Dartmouth W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 05, 2022 168   Princeton W 73-71 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.1 5.1 3.1 1.0 17.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.1 6.7 3.5 0.7 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.4 6.3 1.9 0.1 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.5 4.8 1.1 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.7 3.4 0.5 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.8 1.1 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.0 8th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.6 6.0 8.4 10.7 12.3 13.0 13.0 11.3 8.7 5.9 3.1 1.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
13-1 100.0% 3.1    2.9 0.2
12-2 87.7% 5.1    3.8 1.3 0.0
11-3 58.0% 5.1    2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0
10-4 23.5% 2.6    0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1
9-5 4.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 10.9 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.0% 100.0% 100.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-1 3.1% 99.6% 99.5% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 16.3%
12-2 5.9% 83.5% 83.0% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.4 0.4 1.0 3.0%
11-3 8.7% 51.6% 51.4% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.0 4.2 0.4%
10-4 11.3% 19.0% 18.9% 0.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 9.1 0.1%
9-5 13.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 12.5
8-6 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 13.0
7-7 12.3% 12.3
6-8 10.7% 10.7
5-9 8.4% 8.4
4-10 6.0% 6.0
3-11 3.6% 3.6
2-12 2.0% 2.0
1-13 0.8% 0.8
0-14 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.9 4.1 4.5 2.8 84.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%