Preseason Rankings
Portland St.
Big Sky
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#220
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#113
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#216
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#238
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 16.1% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.6 14.7
.500 or above 47.2% 82.1% 43.8%
.500 or above in Conference 56.9% 81.6% 54.5%
Conference Champion 7.1% 18.3% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 1.0% 5.7%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round6.4% 15.8% 5.4%
Second Round0.6% 2.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 410 - 513 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 70   @ Oregon St. L 64-78 9%    
  Nov 23, 2021 307   Portland W 83-75 76%    
  Nov 26, 2021 39   @ Iowa L 69-86 7%    
  Dec 02, 2021 236   @ Idaho St. L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 04, 2021 129   @ Weber St. L 75-84 24%    
  Dec 11, 2021 305   Cal Poly W 75-67 74%    
  Dec 18, 2021 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 21, 2021 72   @ Utah St. L 66-80 13%    
  Dec 30, 2021 219   Eastern Washington W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 01, 2022 341   Idaho W 79-66 85%    
  Jan 06, 2022 122   @ Southern Utah L 72-81 24%    
  Jan 10, 2022 201   Northern Colorado W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 287   @ Sacramento St. W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 20, 2022 161   Montana L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 22, 2022 204   Montana St. W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 27, 2022 122   Southern Utah L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 29, 2022 324   @ Northern Arizona W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 03, 2022 201   @ Northern Colorado L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 287   Sacramento St. W 74-67 70%    
  Feb 10, 2022 204   @ Montana St. L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 161   @ Montana L 67-74 31%    
  Feb 17, 2022 324   Northern Arizona W 74-64 78%    
  Feb 24, 2022 129   Weber St. L 78-81 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 236   Idaho St. W 71-67 62%    
  Mar 03, 2022 341   @ Idaho W 76-69 70%    
  Mar 05, 2022 219   @ Eastern Washington L 77-80 40%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.6 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 2.7 4.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.7 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.7 5.9 7.6 8.7 9.3 9.9 9.9 9.1 8.0 6.6 5.3 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 95.0% 1.3    1.2 0.2
17-3 74.6% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 47.0% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 21.4% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 72.8% 62.8% 10.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.9%
19-1 0.6% 58.2% 56.7% 1.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3.6%
18-2 1.4% 41.0% 40.1% 1.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.6%
17-3 2.3% 32.4% 32.3% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 0.1%
16-4 3.7% 24.2% 24.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.8
15-5 5.3% 18.3% 18.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 4.3
14-6 6.6% 14.2% 14.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 5.7
13-7 8.0% 9.2% 9.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 7.3
12-8 9.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.5
11-9 9.9% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.5
10-10 9.9% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.6
9-11 9.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.1
8-12 8.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.7
7-13 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.6
6-14 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-16 3.1% 3.1
3-17 2.1% 2.1
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.9 93.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Lose Out 0.0%