IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Rice
Conference USA
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.1	#173
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.5	#114
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.7	#101

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.8	#260

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.5%	6.6%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.8%	1.4%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.1	11.8	13.2

.500 or above	49.5%	64.4%	31.0%
.500 or above in Conference	46.4%	56.9%	33.4%
Conference Champion	4.0%	5.9%	1.5%
Last Place in Conference	8.2%	4.5%	12.7%

First Four	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
First Round	4.3%	6.3%	1.7%
Second Round	1.0%	1.5%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 7
Quad 3	4 - 5	5 - 12
Quad 4	9 - 3	14 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	147	Pepperdine	W	81-80	55%
Nov 12, 2021	13	@ Houston	L	62-80	5%
Nov 16, 2021	317	Southern	W	84-72	84%
Nov 19, 2021	298	@ New Orleans	W	85-81	65%
Nov 22, 2021	198	Evansville	W	71-69	55%
Nov 30, 2021	174	Texas St.	W	70-67	60%
Dec 11, 2021	348	@ Houston Baptist	W	90-78	85%
Dec 16, 2021	345	Incarnate Word	W	81-65	91%
Dec 22, 2021	7	@ Texas	L	67-86	6%
Jan 01, 2022	123	@ North Texas	L	66-72	31%
Jan 06, 2022	267	Middle Tennessee	W	81-72	76%
Jan 08, 2022	74	UAB	L	72-77	36%
Jan 13, 2022	100	@ Western Kentucky	L	71-79	25%
Jan 15, 2022	118	@ Marshall	L	79-86	30%
Jan 20, 2022	131	Old Dominion	W	74-73	52%
Jan 22, 2022	178	Charlotte	W	70-67	61%
Jan 27, 2022	93	@ Louisiana Tech	L	72-81	24%
Jan 29, 2022	195	@ Southern Miss	L	73-74	45%
Feb 03, 2022	207	Texas San Antonio	W	84-79	66%
Feb 05, 2022	163	UTEP	W	75-72	59%
Feb 12, 2022	123	North Texas	L	68-69	50%
Feb 17, 2022	74	@ UAB	L	69-80	20%
Feb 19, 2022	273	@ Florida International	W	80-77	59%
Feb 24, 2022	93	Louisiana Tech	L	75-78	41%
Feb 26, 2022	195	Southern Miss	W	76-71	64%
Mar 03, 2022	163	@ UTEP	L	72-75	39%
Mar 05, 2022	207	@ Texas San Antonio	L	81-82	47%
Projected Record						13 - 14	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.4	1.0	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.1		4.0	1st
2nd												0.1	0.8	1.7	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.0			5.3	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	2.2	2.0	0.6	0.1					5.9	3rd
4th										0.1	0.8	2.7	2.5	0.6	0.1						6.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.0	3.1	0.9	0.1							7.7	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.6	3.9	1.1	0.1								8.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	2.2	4.1	1.7	0.2	0.0								8.4	7th
8th							0.1	1.6	4.3	2.3	0.3										8.6	8th
9th						0.1	1.2	4.0	3.2	0.5	0.0										8.9	9th
10th					0.0	0.9	3.6	3.6	0.8	0.0											8.9	10th
11th				0.0	0.8	3.1	3.5	1.0	0.1												8.4	11th
12th			0.1	0.7	2.6	3.1	1.2	0.1	0.0												7.7	12th
13th		0.2	1.0	2.2	2.2	0.9	0.2														6.7	13th
14th	0.3	1.1	1.5	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0														4.7	14th

Total	0.3	1.3	2.6	4.3	6.1	8.1	9.7	10.5	10.8	10.3	9.8	8.0	6.4	4.9	3.5	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.1			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	98.7%	0.4		0.3	0.0	0.0
16-2	85.0%	0.9		0.7	0.2	0.0
15-3	59.7%	1.2		0.6	0.4	0.1		0.0
14-4	28.6%	1.0		0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	8.3%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.6%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.0%	4.0		2.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		87.8%	52.9%	34.9%	5.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		74.0%
17-1	0.4%		74.5%	43.0%	31.5%	8.8				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		55.3%
16-2	1.0%		52.7%	32.0%	20.7%	10.3			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.5		30.4%
15-3	2.0%		32.4%	24.4%	8.0%	11.4							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.3		10.6%
14-4	3.5%		21.3%	16.8%	4.5%	12.1									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		2.8		5.4%
13-5	4.9%		14.6%	13.4%	1.2%	12.8											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0		4.2		1.4%
12-6	6.4%		8.5%	8.4%	0.1%	13.2											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	5.9		0.1%
11-7	8.0%		4.6%	4.6%	0.1%	13.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.7		0.1%
10-8	9.8%		2.8%	2.8%	0.0%	14.0													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.6		0.0%
9-9	10.3%		1.2%	1.2%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	10.2
8-10	10.8%		0.6%	0.6%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.8
7-11	10.5%		0.5%	0.5%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.4
6-12	9.7%		0.1%	0.1%		15.7																0.0	0.0	9.7
5-13	8.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.1
4-14	6.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.1
3-15	4.3%																							4.3
2-16	2.6%																							2.6
1-17	1.3%																							1.3
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		4.5%	3.7%	0.8%	12.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	95.5		0.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	2.8		48.1	25.9	25.9
Lose Out	0.0%