Preseason Rankings
Robert Morris
Horizon
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#282
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.7#246
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#209
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#323
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 7.9% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.9 14.9
.500 or above 20.5% 55.8% 18.7%
.500 or above in Conference 35.6% 64.9% 34.2%
Conference Champion 2.4% 8.4% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.2% 2.6% 13.7%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round2.3% 7.6% 2.1%
Second Round0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 4.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 49 - 711 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 68   @ Central Florida L 62-80 5%    
  Nov 12, 2021 14   @ Kentucky L 62-86 1%    
  Nov 15, 2021 91   @ Ohio L 67-83 9%    
  Nov 19, 2021 242   Mount St. Mary's W 65-64 53%    
  Nov 27, 2021 98   @ Davidson L 61-76 10%    
  Dec 02, 2021 316   @ Green Bay L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 04, 2021 205   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-79 27%    
  Dec 11, 2021 222   Florida Gulf Coast L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 19, 2021 150   @ Bowling Green L 71-82 19%    
  Dec 22, 2021 283   @ St. Francis (PA) L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 30, 2021 221   @ Oakland L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 01, 2022 212   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-79 29%    
  Jan 05, 2022 281   Youngstown St. W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 07, 2022 151   Cleveland St. L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 09, 2022 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 13, 2022 115   Wright St. L 73-80 27%    
  Jan 15, 2022 166   Northern Kentucky L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 21, 2022 247   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-79 36%    
  Jan 23, 2022 151   @ Cleveland St. L 66-76 20%    
  Jan 27, 2022 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-76 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 316   Green Bay W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 03, 2022 253   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 333   @ IUPUI W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 09, 2022 212   Detroit Mercy L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 11, 2022 221   Oakland L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 13, 2022 281   @ Youngstown St. L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 17, 2022 333   IUPUI W 81-73 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 253   Illinois-Chicago W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 166   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-75 22%    
  Feb 26, 2022 115   @ Wright St. L 70-83 15%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 9 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.8 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.9 3.5 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.4 11th
12th 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 12th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.0 5.4 7.1 8.0 8.7 9.2 9.1 8.7 8.0 6.9 5.8 4.7 3.8 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
20-2 96.8% 0.3    0.2 0.0
19-3 80.9% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
18-4 54.1% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
17-5 27.9% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
16-6 10.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-7 2.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 73.2% 54.9% 18.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.6%
21-1 0.1% 48.7% 44.0% 4.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4%
20-2 0.3% 35.1% 32.6% 2.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.7%
19-3 0.6% 30.7% 30.0% 0.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0%
18-4 1.1% 22.0% 22.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
17-5 1.7% 19.0% 19.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
16-6 2.5% 10.7% 10.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3
15-7 3.8% 9.5% 9.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.4
14-8 4.7% 5.7% 5.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.4
13-9 5.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.6
12-10 6.9% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.7
11-11 8.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.9
10-12 8.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.6
9-13 9.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.1
8-14 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.2
7-15 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
6-16 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.0
5-17 7.1% 7.1
4-18 5.4% 5.4
3-19 4.0% 4.0
2-20 2.5% 2.5
1-21 1.2% 1.2
0-22 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%