Preseason Rankings
Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#287
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.9#320
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#275
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#281
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 7.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.3 15.1
.500 or above 20.1% 54.3% 17.4%
.500 or above in Conference 31.7% 59.8% 29.5%
Conference Champion 2.3% 8.5% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 14.1% 3.7% 14.9%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round2.1% 6.9% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 7.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 48 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 88   @ Utah L 60-76 7%    
  Nov 15, 2021 305   @ Cal Poly L 66-68 43%    
  Nov 20, 2021 263   UC San Diego W 72-70 56%    
  Nov 23, 2021 208   UC Davis L 67-72 35%    
  Nov 27, 2021 31   @ Arizona L 57-79 3%    
  Dec 02, 2021 161   Montana L 64-68 37%    
  Dec 04, 2021 204   Montana St. L 68-70 44%    
  Dec 11, 2021 70   @ Oregon St. L 57-75 7%    
  Dec 19, 2021 148   @ UC Riverside L 60-71 18%    
  Dec 30, 2021 122   @ Southern Utah L 65-78 15%    
  Jan 08, 2022 201   @ Northern Colorado L 65-73 26%    
  Jan 10, 2022 324   @ Northern Arizona W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 220   Portland St. L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 20, 2022 219   @ Eastern Washington L 70-77 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 341   @ Idaho W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 27, 2022 236   Idaho St. W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 129   Weber St. L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 03, 2022 324   Northern Arizona W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 220   @ Portland St. L 67-74 30%    
  Feb 10, 2022 201   Northern Colorado L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 122   Southern Utah L 68-75 30%    
  Feb 17, 2022 129   @ Weber St. L 68-80 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 236   @ Idaho St. L 61-67 32%    
  Feb 24, 2022 341   Idaho W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 26, 2022 219   Eastern Washington L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 03, 2022 204   @ Montana St. L 65-73 27%    
  Mar 05, 2022 161   @ Montana L 61-71 21%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.4 3.8 1.3 0.2 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.8 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.4 5.0 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.9 4.3 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 13.8 10th
11th 0.6 1.7 2.7 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.4 11th
Total 0.6 1.8 3.7 5.7 7.7 9.2 10.0 10.2 10.2 9.2 7.9 7.1 5.6 4.0 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 77.1% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 51.9% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 24.6% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 60.6% 60.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 49.0% 45.6% 3.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.2%
18-2 0.3% 32.7% 32.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.7% 28.9% 28.3% 0.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9%
16-4 1.2% 21.6% 21.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-5 1.9% 16.2% 16.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-6 2.9% 12.4% 12.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.5
13-7 4.0% 6.8% 6.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.7
12-8 5.6% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.3
11-9 7.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.8
10-10 7.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.8
9-11 9.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.1
8-12 10.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.1
7-13 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 10.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.0
5-15 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
4-16 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-17 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.7
2-18 3.7% 3.7
1-19 1.8% 1.8
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%