Preseason Rankings
San Diego
West Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#170
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.3#84
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#192
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#161
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 7.1% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 5.2% 0.7%
Average Seed 10.3 9.7 11.0
.500 or above 38.3% 69.6% 33.0%
.500 or above in Conference 29.3% 50.1% 25.8%
Conference Champion 0.7% 2.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 14.9% 5.8% 16.4%
First Four0.5% 1.8% 0.3%
First Round1.7% 6.1% 0.9%
Second Round0.6% 2.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 52 - 9
Quad 34 - 45 - 14
Quad 47 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 63   @ Nevada L 71-83 14%    
  Nov 15, 2021 113   @ California L 65-72 27%    
  Nov 17, 2021 148   UC Riverside W 71-69 55%    
  Nov 19, 2021 231   Cal St. Fullerton W 83-76 72%    
  Nov 25, 2021 214   South Alabama W 74-71 59%    
  Nov 28, 2021 296   Cal St. Northridge W 83-73 81%    
  Dec 01, 2021 138   @ Fresno St. L 68-73 34%    
  Dec 05, 2021 305   Cal Poly W 77-66 82%    
  Dec 18, 2021 324   Northern Arizona W 74-64 79%    
  Dec 20, 2021 271   Long Beach St. W 84-75 77%    
  Dec 22, 2021 145   @ UNLV L 69-74 36%    
  Dec 30, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 74-92 7%    
  Jan 01, 2022 124   @ Santa Clara L 73-79 32%    
  Jan 06, 2022 147   @ Pepperdine L 76-80 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 67   @ San Francisco L 68-79 19%    
  Jan 13, 2022 307   Portland W 84-73 81%    
  Jan 15, 2022 82   Loyola Marymount L 70-74 39%    
  Jan 20, 2022 38   BYU L 70-78 26%    
  Jan 22, 2022 137   @ Pacific L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 27, 2022 147   Pepperdine W 79-77 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 82   @ Loyola Marymount L 67-77 22%    
  Feb 05, 2022 124   Santa Clara W 77-76 50%    
  Feb 10, 2022 49   @ St. Mary's L 61-74 15%    
  Feb 12, 2022 137   Pacific W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 17, 2022 307   @ Portland W 81-76 65%    
  Feb 24, 2022 49   St. Mary's L 64-71 29%    
  Feb 26, 2022 67   San Francisco L 71-76 34%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.6 6.5 2.5 0.2 14.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.8 6.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 16.4 8th
9th 0.5 3.4 6.7 5.1 1.5 0.1 17.3 9th
10th 1.1 3.0 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.0 10th
Total 1.1 3.5 6.6 9.8 12.1 13.1 12.8 11.9 9.7 7.4 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 90.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 52.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-3 22.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 7.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 0.1% 82.1% 27.8% 54.3% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.2%
14-2 0.4% 65.8% 13.6% 52.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 60.4%
13-3 0.9% 46.4% 8.9% 37.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 41.2%
12-4 2.0% 22.9% 5.9% 17.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 18.1%
11-5 3.4% 8.9% 3.0% 5.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 6.1%
10-6 5.3% 4.1% 2.3% 1.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.1 1.8%
9-7 7.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.3%
8-8 9.7% 0.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7
7-9 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8
6-10 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8
5-11 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-12 12.1% 12.1
3-13 9.8% 9.8
2-14 6.6% 6.6
1-15 3.5% 3.5
0-16 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 2.0% 0.7% 1.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.0 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.3 35.0 65.0
Lose Out 0.0%