Preseason Rankings
Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#317
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.2#71
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#325
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#279
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 26.2% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 25.8% 75.1% 25.2%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 95.1% 68.0%
Conference Champion 8.0% 29.6% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four5.8% 10.9% 5.7%
First Round5.0% 21.9% 4.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 1.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 412 - 813 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 27   @ Louisville L 59-83 1%    
  Nov 11, 2021 153   @ Stephen F. Austin L 68-81 12%    
  Nov 13, 2021 136   @ Tulane L 64-78 11%    
  Nov 16, 2021 173   @ Rice L 72-84 16%    
  Nov 19, 2021 186   @ South Dakota L 71-82 18%    
  Nov 21, 2021 75   @ Nebraska L 68-87 5%    
  Nov 28, 2021 289   @ Tennessee St. L 74-79 34%    
  Dec 04, 2021 128   @ Akron L 66-81 11%    
  Dec 07, 2021 14   @ Kentucky L 61-88 2%    
  Dec 11, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 19, 2021 132   @ Kent St. L 69-83 12%    
  Dec 21, 2021 87   @ Dayton L 61-79 7%    
  Jan 03, 2022 211   Texas Southern L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 05, 2022 232   Prairie View L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 08, 2022 304   @ Florida A&M L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 10, 2022 350   @ Bethune-Cookman W 75-70 64%    
  Jan 15, 2022 312   @ Grambling St. L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 22, 2022 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78-63 88%    
  Jan 24, 2022 358   Mississippi Valley W 87-68 93%    
  Jan 29, 2022 347   @ Alcorn St. W 76-73 58%    
  Jan 31, 2022 262   @ Jackson St. L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 05, 2022 340   Alabama A&M W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 07, 2022 351   Alabama St. W 78-67 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 232   @ Prairie View L 68-76 27%    
  Feb 14, 2022 211   @ Texas Southern L 73-82 23%    
  Feb 19, 2022 312   Grambling St. W 75-72 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 350   Bethune-Cookman W 78-67 80%    
  Feb 28, 2022 304   Florida A&M W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 03, 2022 351   @ Alabama St. W 75-70 64%    
  Mar 05, 2022 340   @ Alabama A&M W 69-68 52%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.3 8.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.1 4.4 1.4 0.1 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 4.3 1.2 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 3.9 0.9 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.6 3.2 0.8 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.9 5.8 7.8 9.7 10.9 11.6 11.4 10.3 8.9 6.7 4.6 2.4 1.2 0.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.4% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 86.8% 2.1    1.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 54.7% 2.5    1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 22.1% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 4.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 61.9% 61.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.2% 46.1% 46.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6
16-2 2.4% 36.1% 36.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6
15-3 4.6% 27.2% 27.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4
14-4 6.7% 21.2% 21.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.3
13-5 8.9% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 7.7
12-6 10.3% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.4
11-7 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.6 10.7
10-8 11.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.5 11.1
9-9 10.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 10.6
8-10 9.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.6
7-11 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.8
6-12 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-13 3.9% 3.9
4-14 2.4% 2.4
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 6.9 92.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%