Preseason Rankings
Tennessee
Southeastern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#23
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.9#241
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.6% 6.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 13.2% 13.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 26.5% 26.5% 5.0%
Top 6 Seed 38.8% 38.8% 6.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.8% 64.9% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.1% 60.1% 11.9%
Average Seed 5.7 5.7 6.2
.500 or above 82.2% 82.2% 28.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 75.3% 31.8%
Conference Champion 15.2% 15.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.9% 16.5%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 0.0%
First Round63.3% 63.4% 14.8%
Second Round44.1% 44.2% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen23.9% 23.9% 3.5%
Elite Eight12.3% 12.3% 3.5%
Final Four6.1% 6.1% 3.5%
Championship Game2.9% 2.9% 3.5%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 1.8%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 35 - 115 - 11
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 349   Tennessee Martin W 87-55 99.9%   
  Nov 14, 2021 141   East Tennessee St. W 74-60 90%    
  Nov 20, 2021 6   Villanova L 66-69 40%    
  Nov 26, 2021 301   Tennessee Tech W 83-59 98%    
  Nov 30, 2021 319   Presbyterian W 79-54 98%    
  Dec 04, 2021 47   @ Colorado L 66-67 49%    
  Dec 07, 2021 21   Texas Tech L 65-66 49%    
  Dec 11, 2021 149   UNC Greensboro W 77-62 89%    
  Dec 14, 2021 343   South Carolina Upstate W 85-56 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 11   Memphis L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 22, 2021 31   Arizona W 72-68 63%    
  Dec 29, 2021 15   @ Alabama L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 05, 2022 66   Mississippi W 69-61 73%    
  Jan 08, 2022 36   @ LSU L 74-76 45%    
  Jan 11, 2022 104   South Carolina W 81-70 82%    
  Jan 15, 2022 14   @ Kentucky L 68-73 36%    
  Jan 18, 2022 92   @ Vanderbilt W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 22, 2022 36   LSU W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 26, 2022 33   Florida W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 7   @ Texas L 67-73 32%    
  Feb 01, 2022 94   Texas A&M W 71-60 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 104   @ South Carolina W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 09, 2022 56   @ Mississippi St. W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 92   Vanderbilt W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 15, 2022 14   Kentucky W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 17   @ Arkansas L 73-77 39%    
  Feb 22, 2022 84   @ Missouri W 72-68 61%    
  Feb 26, 2022 26   Auburn W 76-72 61%    
  Mar 01, 2022 133   @ Georgia W 80-72 73%    
  Mar 05, 2022 17   Arkansas W 76-74 58%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.3 4.1 2.5 0.8 15.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.8 4.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.0 1.3 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 1.7 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.5 8.9 10.2 10.9 10.9 10.4 8.8 7.0 4.7 2.6 0.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.1% 2.5    2.4 0.2
16-2 87.4% 4.1    3.2 0.9 0.1
15-3 60.7% 4.3    2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 29.1% 2.6    0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 9.6 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 100.0% 59.4% 40.6% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.6% 100.0% 49.5% 50.5% 1.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.7% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.9 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.0% 99.9% 30.4% 69.5% 2.8 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 8.8% 99.8% 22.6% 77.2% 4.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 10.4% 98.3% 15.8% 82.4% 5.3 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.9%
12-6 10.9% 93.5% 10.3% 83.2% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 92.8%
11-7 10.9% 82.2% 6.8% 75.4% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 80.9%
10-8 10.2% 62.5% 3.5% 59.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 61.2%
9-9 8.9% 39.9% 2.2% 37.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3 38.6%
8-10 7.5% 16.3% 1.4% 14.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 15.1%
7-11 6.1% 5.1% 0.9% 4.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 4.3%
6-12 4.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.2%
5-13 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 3.0 0.1%
4-14 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.8% 12.0% 52.9% 5.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.2 60.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.2 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 81.4 18.6