Preseason Rankings
Texas
Big 12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#7
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#145
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.4% 2.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 10.1% 10.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 20.0% 20.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 37.2% 37.2% 7.5%
Top 6 Seed 51.6% 51.6% 15.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.2% 77.2% 33.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.8% 71.8% 30.7%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 7.2
.500 or above 95.4% 95.4% 64.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.1% 83.1% 47.8%
Conference Champion 24.7% 24.7% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.4% 3.8%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 3.8%
First Round76.1% 76.2% 33.3%
Second Round58.3% 58.4% 26.9%
Sweet Sixteen35.3% 35.3% 19.4%
Elite Eight20.3% 20.3% 0.0%
Final Four11.5% 11.5% 0.0%
Championship Game6.2% 6.2% 0.0%
National Champion3.4% 3.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Baptist (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 25 - 211 - 8
Quad 35 - 016 - 9
Quad 48 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 348   Houston Baptist W 97-63 99.9%   
  Nov 13, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 78-86 24%    
  Nov 17, 2021 201   Northern Colorado W 83-62 97%    
  Nov 20, 2021 322   San Jose St. W 93-64 99%    
  Nov 24, 2021 215   California Baptist W 88-66 97%    
  Nov 29, 2021 196   Sam Houston St. W 86-65 96%    
  Dec 03, 2021 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-59 99%    
  Dec 09, 2021 41   @ Seton Hall W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 14, 2021 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-49 99.9%   
  Dec 19, 2021 71   Stanford W 76-68 75%    
  Dec 22, 2021 173   Rice W 86-67 94%    
  Dec 28, 2021 345   Incarnate Word W 86-53 99.6%   
  Jan 01, 2022 32   West Virginia W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 04, 2022 89   @ Kansas St. W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 11, 2022 40   Oklahoma W 74-66 74%    
  Jan 15, 2022 127   @ Iowa St. W 79-69 79%    
  Jan 18, 2022 89   Kansas St. W 74-61 85%    
  Jan 22, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 25, 2022 80   @ TCU W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 23   Tennessee W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 01, 2022 21   @ Texas Tech L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 127   Iowa St. W 82-66 90%    
  Feb 07, 2022 4   Kansas W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 12, 2022 9   @ Baylor L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 15, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 21   Texas Tech W 71-65 67%    
  Feb 23, 2022 80   TCU W 77-65 83%    
  Feb 26, 2022 32   @ West Virginia W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 28, 2022 9   Baylor W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 05, 2022 4   @ Kansas L 71-75 38%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.4 6.5 6.3 3.9 1.4 24.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.0 5.6 2.5 0.5 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 5.8 3.5 0.8 0.1 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 4.8 2.0 0.3 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 3.5 1.1 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 2.4 0.7 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.8 4.4 6.0 7.5 9.2 11.1 11.6 11.6 10.8 9.0 6.8 3.9 1.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 3.9    3.8 0.1
16-2 92.6% 6.3    5.3 1.0 0.0
15-3 72.1% 6.5    4.3 2.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.7% 4.4    2.0 1.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 15.1% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 17.2 6.1 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 100.0% 70.2% 29.8% 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.9% 100.0% 55.5% 44.5% 1.4 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.8% 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% 1.8 3.1 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.0% 100.0% 36.4% 63.5% 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 10.8% 99.8% 29.3% 70.5% 3.5 0.9 2.3 2.7 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 11.6% 99.1% 20.7% 78.5% 4.8 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-6 11.6% 96.4% 13.1% 83.3% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.8%
11-7 11.1% 88.9% 10.2% 78.8% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 87.7%
10-8 9.2% 74.1% 7.5% 66.6% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 72.0%
9-9 7.5% 51.1% 5.2% 45.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.7 48.4%
8-10 6.0% 25.2% 2.9% 22.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 4.5 23.0%
7-11 4.4% 9.0% 2.1% 6.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.0 7.0%
6-12 2.8% 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 1.2%
5-13 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.2% 19.2% 58.0% 5.1 10.1 9.9 9.1 8.1 7.6 6.9 6.5 6.1 4.4 3.7 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 22.8 71.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 91.5 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.7 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.7