IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.1	#207
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.5	#38
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.5	#161

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.6	#253

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.4%	8.4%	2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	2.1%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.9	11.8	13.2

.500 or above	42.1%	78.6%	39.5%
.500 or above in Conference	33.6%	61.1%	31.6%
Conference Champion	2.2%	7.4%	1.8%
Last Place in Conference	14.0%	3.8%	14.8%

First Four	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%
First Round	2.3%	8.0%	1.9%
Second Round	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 6.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 12
Quad 4	9 - 3	13 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 12, 2021	40	@ Oklahoma	L	67-83	7%
Nov 16, 2021	344	Denver	W	88-74	90%
Nov 17, 2021	333	IUPUI	W	88-76	86%
Nov 21, 2021	342	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	85-71	88%
Nov 24, 2021	308	Lamar	W	81-72	78%
Dec 02, 2021	142	@ Grand Canyon	L	70-77	28%
Dec 11, 2021	196	Sam Houston St.	L	80-81	49%
Dec 16, 2021	310	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	82-73	78%
Dec 21, 2021	223	@ Illinois St.	L	76-78	44%
Dec 30, 2021	267	@ Middle Tennessee	W	78-77	52%
Jan 01, 2022	74	@ UAB	L	69-82	16%
Jan 06, 2022	195	Southern Miss	W	76-73	58%
Jan 08, 2022	93	Louisiana Tech	L	75-80	35%
Jan 13, 2022	131	@ Old Dominion	L	71-79	27%
Jan 15, 2022	178	@ Charlotte	L	67-72	36%
Jan 20, 2022	163	@ UTEP	L	72-77	33%
Jan 23, 2022	163	UTEP	W	75-74	52%
Jan 27, 2022	273	Florida International	W	83-76	71%
Jan 29, 2022	159	Florida Atlantic	W	77-76	52%
Feb 03, 2022	173	@ Rice	L	79-84	34%
Feb 05, 2022	123	@ North Texas	L	66-74	26%
Feb 13, 2022	100	Western Kentucky	L	75-79	36%
Feb 17, 2022	195	@ Southern Miss	L	73-76	39%
Feb 19, 2022	93	@ Louisiana Tech	L	72-83	20%
Feb 24, 2022	74	UAB	L	72-79	30%
Mar 03, 2022	123	North Texas	L	69-71	43%
Mar 05, 2022	173	Rice	W	82-81	53%
Projected Record						13 - 14	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0		2.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0			3.1	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.7	1.6	1.3	0.4	0.0					4.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	2.0	1.6	0.4	0.0						4.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	2.3	2.2	0.6	0.0							5.7	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.2	3.0	0.8	0.1								6.4	6th
7th								0.2	2.0	3.6	1.3	0.1									7.2	7th
8th							0.1	1.7	4.1	2.1	0.2	0.0									8.2	8th
9th						0.1	1.3	4.0	3.0	0.4	0.0										8.8	9th
10th					0.1	1.1	3.8	3.7	0.8	0.0											9.5	10th
11th				0.1	1.1	3.7	4.1	1.1	0.1												10.1	11th
12th			0.2	1.2	3.7	4.0	1.5	0.1	0.0												10.7	12th
13th		0.3	1.8	3.8	3.4	1.3	0.2	0.0													10.8	13th
14th	0.8	2.2	2.8	2.0	0.7	0.1	0.0														8.6	14th

Total	0.8	2.5	4.8	7.0	8.9	10.3	11.0	10.8	10.1	8.9	7.5	6.0	4.4	3.1	1.9	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.0			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	96.7%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	85.2%	0.5		0.4	0.1
15-3	58.9%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-4	28.8%	0.6		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	8.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.2%	2.2		1.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		75.5%	38.2%	37.3%	7.5				0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0						0.0		60.3%
17-1	0.2%		61.3%	35.2%	26.1%	9.4		0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		40.3%
16-2	0.6%		41.8%	27.5%	14.3%	10.8				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.3		19.7%
15-3	1.1%		28.2%	23.5%	4.8%	11.9								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.8		6.2%
14-4	1.9%		17.1%	16.0%	1.1%	12.7											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.6		1.4%
13-5	3.1%		10.6%	10.3%	0.4%	13.3												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		2.7		0.4%
12-6	4.4%		7.9%	7.7%	0.1%	13.6												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	4.0		0.1%
11-7	6.0%		4.5%	4.5%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	5.7
10-8	7.5%		2.5%	2.5%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.3
9-9	8.9%		1.4%	1.4%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	8.8
8-10	10.1%		0.6%	0.6%		14.9													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	10.1
7-11	10.8%		0.5%	0.5%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.8
6-12	11.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.0
5-13	10.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.3
4-14	8.9%																							8.9
3-15	7.0%																							7.0
2-16	4.8%																							4.8
1-17	2.5%																							2.5
0-18	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		2.4%	2.2%	0.2%	12.9		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	97.6		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%