IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
The Citadel
Southern
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.0	#272
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	81.2	#7
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.4	#189

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.6	#326

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.9%	5.3%	1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.0	14.9

.500 or above	25.4%	57.7%	21.1%
.500 or above in Conference	23.1%	45.2%	20.2%
Conference Champion	1.7%	5.5%	1.2%
Last Place in Conference	26.0%	11.3%	28.0%

First Four	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
First Round	1.7%	5.1%	1.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 5	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	117	@ Pittsburgh	L	74-87	12%
Nov 15, 2021	319	@ Presbyterian	L	76-77	50%
Nov 22, 2021	10	@ Duke	L	69-94	2%
Nov 28, 2021	352	@ South Carolina St.	W	90-81	79%
Dec 01, 2021	252	@ UNC Asheville	L	81-85	37%
Dec 06, 2021	339	NC Central	W	82-72	78%
Dec 20, 2021	352	South Carolina St.	W	93-78	89%
Dec 21, 2021	278	Manhattan	W	77-74	60%
Dec 29, 2021	155	Mercer	L	78-82	38%
Jan 01, 2022	255	@ Samford	L	86-90	38%
Jan 05, 2022	309	@ Western Carolina	L	84-85	48%
Jan 08, 2022	135	@ Chattanooga	L	73-84	18%
Jan 13, 2022	149	UNC Greensboro	L	78-82	36%
Jan 15, 2022	218	VMI	L	85-86	50%
Jan 19, 2022	139	@ Wofford	L	72-83	19%
Jan 22, 2022	141	@ East Tennessee St.	L	72-83	19%
Jan 26, 2022	309	Western Carolina	W	87-82	66%
Jan 29, 2022	135	Chattanooga	L	76-81	34%
Feb 02, 2022	109	@ Furman	L	74-87	14%
Feb 05, 2022	255	Samford	W	89-87	57%
Feb 10, 2022	149	@ UNC Greensboro	L	75-85	21%
Feb 12, 2022	218	@ VMI	L	82-88	31%
Feb 16, 2022	139	Wofford	L	75-80	35%
Feb 19, 2022	141	East Tennessee St.	L	75-80	35%
Feb 23, 2022	155	@ Mercer	L	75-85	22%
Feb 26, 2022	109	Furman	L	77-84	28%
Projected Record						10 - 16	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.7	1st
2nd											0.1	0.4	0.9	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0				2.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	0.8	1.7	1.3	0.4	0.0						4.2	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.3	2.4	1.6	0.4	0.0							5.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	1.8	3.5	1.9	0.3	0.0								7.9	5th
6th						0.0	0.6	2.9	4.2	2.2	0.3	0.0									10.3	6th
7th					0.2	1.3	4.3	4.9	2.3	0.3	0.0										13.3	7th
8th			0.0	0.5	2.8	5.6	5.2	2.0	0.2	0.0											16.4	8th
9th		0.2	2.0	4.8	6.3	4.2	1.4	0.2	0.0												19.0	9th
10th	1.7	4.3	5.5	4.2	2.1	0.5	0.0	0.0													18.3	10th

Total	1.7	4.5	7.5	9.6	11.3	11.6	11.5	10.3	8.8	7.4	5.5	4.0	2.7	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	94.9%	0.2		0.2	0.0
15-3	80.6%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	49.8%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-5	20.4%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	4.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.7%	1.7		0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		100.0%	74.1%	25.9%	8.8						0.0			0.0	0.0				0.0						100.0%
17-1	0.1%		35.8%	27.9%	7.9%	11.3						0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.1		11.0%
16-2	0.2%		41.8%	40.8%	1.1%	12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		1.8%
15-3	0.5%		25.7%	25.3%	0.4%	13.4												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4		0.5%
14-4	1.0%		20.2%	20.2%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.8
13-5	1.7%		13.6%	13.6%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.5
12-6	2.7%		9.6%	9.6%		14.6														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	2.4
11-7	4.0%		5.8%	5.8%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.8
10-8	5.5%		4.8%	4.8%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	5.2
9-9	7.4%		2.7%	2.7%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.1	7.2
8-10	8.8%		1.5%	1.5%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	8.7
7-11	10.3%		0.8%	0.8%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.2
6-12	11.5%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
5-13	11.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.6
4-14	11.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
3-15	9.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.6
2-16	7.5%																							7.5
1-17	4.5%																							4.5
0-18	1.7%																							1.7

Total	100%		1.9%	1.9%	0.0%	14.6						0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.6	98.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%