Preseason Rankings
UAB
Conference USA
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#74
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#231
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#90
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 2.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 5.2% 5.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.7% 31.2% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.9% 10.6% 1.4%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 12.3
.500 or above 91.2% 93.0% 68.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 89.7% 70.1%
Conference Champion 27.7% 29.0% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 2.3%
First Four2.9% 3.1% 0.6%
First Round28.4% 29.8% 10.2%
Second Round12.1% 12.8% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 5.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 92.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 37 - 310 - 8
Quad 412 - 121 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 252   UNC Asheville W 80-64 93%    
  Nov 12, 2021 158   Morehead St. W 72-62 81%    
  Nov 18, 2021 104   @ South Carolina L 76-77 48%    
  Nov 21, 2021 340   Alabama A&M W 77-54 97%    
  Nov 25, 2021 240   New Mexico W 75-63 84%    
  Dec 01, 2021 141   East Tennessee St. W 72-63 76%    
  Dec 04, 2021 79   @ Saint Louis L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 14, 2021 312   Grambling St. W 80-61 94%    
  Dec 18, 2021 32   West Virginia L 69-74 35%    
  Dec 22, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 92-57 99.8%   
  Dec 30, 2021 163   UTEP W 73-63 80%    
  Jan 01, 2022 207   Texas San Antonio W 82-69 84%    
  Jan 06, 2022 123   @ North Texas W 64-63 54%    
  Jan 08, 2022 173   @ Rice W 77-72 64%    
  Jan 13, 2022 273   Florida International W 81-64 90%    
  Jan 15, 2022 159   Florida Atlantic W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 22, 2022 93   @ Louisiana Tech L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 27, 2022 100   @ Western Kentucky L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 29, 2022 118   @ Marshall W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 267   Middle Tennessee W 79-63 90%    
  Feb 10, 2022 195   Southern Miss W 74-62 83%    
  Feb 13, 2022 131   @ Old Dominion W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 17, 2022 173   Rice W 80-69 80%    
  Feb 19, 2022 123   North Texas W 67-60 72%    
  Feb 24, 2022 207   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-72 70%    
  Feb 26, 2022 163   @ UTEP W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 02, 2022 195   @ Southern Miss W 71-65 68%    
  Mar 05, 2022 93   Louisiana Tech W 73-68 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.6 6.9 8.0 5.7 2.4 27.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.4 6.2 3.9 1.2 0.1 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.4 6.2 7.9 9.9 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.1 9.2 5.8 2.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4 0.0
17-1 98.4% 5.7    5.3 0.4 0.0
16-2 86.6% 8.0    6.0 1.9 0.1
15-3 61.8% 6.9    3.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-4 29.2% 3.6    1.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.2% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.7% 27.7 18.8 6.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.4% 96.6% 69.7% 26.9% 4.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.7%
17-1 5.8% 86.5% 54.7% 31.8% 7.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 70.2%
16-2 9.2% 70.4% 45.3% 25.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 45.9%
15-3 11.1% 51.2% 35.4% 15.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 24.4%
14-4 12.2% 33.9% 27.5% 6.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.1 8.8%
13-5 12.3% 22.0% 20.0% 2.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.6 2.5%
12-6 11.3% 15.4% 14.6% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.9%
11-7 9.9% 9.0% 8.9% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.0 0.1%
10-8 7.9% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5 0.0%
9-9 6.2% 2.9% 2.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.0
8-10 4.4% 1.9% 1.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
7-11 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 29.7% 22.0% 7.7% 10.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.6 4.5 6.8 4.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 70.3 9.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 2.5 23.1 32.0 25.7 14.0 4.0 0.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 97.5% 3.4 19.3 11.6 18.9 23.5 9.5 9.8 2.5 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.4 11.1 24.9 18.0 21.2 14.3 6.9 3.7